Weather Service Report


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AXUS74 KEPZ 101614 CCA
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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 
1000 AM TUESDAY JUL 10 2018

...El Nino Watch is in effect...

An El Nino watch is in effect. Enso-Neutral is favored through the 
Northern hemisphere summer 2018 with the chances for El Nino 
increasing to 50% during the fall and 65% during the winter 2018-
2019.  

Extreme Drought conditions prevail over northwest Grant county with 
severe to moderate drought over the rest of Southern New Mexico 
except for Abnormally dry conditions across the southern most 
portions of Dona Ana and Otero counties. Far West Texas now is in 
abnormally dry conditions. These conditions are as of 5 July 2018. 
The Elephant Butte reservoir is running at 10.0% capacity as OF 9 
JULY 2018 which continues to be down from last month. As of 9 JUL 
2018, precipitation for El Paso Texas is running at 1.92 inches for 
the year compared to a normal of 3.14 inches which is 1.22 inches 
below normal. As of the first week in July, synoptic weather 
patterns across the Southwestern United States have become more 
monsoon like with the surface and upper subtropical high pressure 
cells positioned to advect into the Borderland abundant subtropical 
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Mexico.


The seasonal drought outlook of the Climate Prediction Center calls 
for some improvement over the area. into October 2018.  

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND 
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

The long term climate outlook from the Climate Prediction Center of 
the National Weather Service is for above normal chances of 
precipitation for the latter part of July into next April for our 
area courtesy of the North American Monsoon followed by an El Nino 
event. Temperatures  during that same period, temperatures should 
remain above normal. 

IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND 
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES 
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
USE RESTRICTIONS ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR
LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES 
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART 
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE 
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW 
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE 
UNITED STATES. 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... 
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. 
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT 
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MAPSANDDATA/COMPARISONSLIDER.ASPX
NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATEHR.GOV/PRECIP 
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/SUPPLEMENTALINFO/LINKS.ASPX
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/RT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND 
REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...575-589-4088
DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT
DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/

$$

NOVLAN
AXUS74 KEPZ 292036 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu