Weather Service Report


061 
AXUS74 KEPZ 070253 CCA
DGTEPZ

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 
900 PM THURSDAY SEP 07 2018

...El Nino Watch is in effect...

An El Nino watch is in effect. There is a 60% chance of El Nino in 
the Northern Hemisphere for the fall of 2018 increasing to a 70% 
chance during the winter of 2018-2019.

As of 6 September, 2018 El Paso county remains in abnormally dry 
conditions with northern Hudspeth county in moderate drought and 
southern Hudspeth county in abnormally dry conditions. Dona Ana county 
in southern New Mexico is in abnormally dry conditions with the rest 
of south southwestern New Mexico in moderate drought conditions.  The 
Elephant Butte reservoir is running at 4.0% capacity as OF 6 
September 2018 which continues to be down from the last two months. 
As of 7 SEP 2018, precipitation for El Paso Texas is running at 4.61 
inches for the year compared to a normal of 6.63 inches which is 70% 
of normal for this time of year showing a weak monsoon so far. 


The seasonal drought outlook of the Climate Prediction Center calls 
for some improvement over the area. into November 2018.  

THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND 
AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...

The long term climate outlook from the Climate Prediction Center of 
the National Weather Service is for above normal chances of 
precipitation for October July into next April for our area courtesy 
of a forecast El Nino event. Temperatures  during that same period, 
temperatures should remain above normal to december than be normal 
through February. 

IMPACTS...
D4 = EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND 
WIDESPREAD CROP/PASTURE LOSSES WITH EXCEPTIONAL FIRE RISK AND SHORTAGES 
OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS...STREAMS...AND WELLS CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
D3 = EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY MAJOR CROP/PASTURE
 LOSSES ALONG WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER AND WIDESPREAD WATER SHORTAGES OR
 RESTRICTIONS.
D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE
LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER
USE RESTRICTIONS ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR
LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT.
D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES 
WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART 
LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE 
RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED.
D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW 
CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. 
REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE 
UNITED STATES. 
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... 
THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF 
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. 
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE NWS WEB SITE FOR EL PASO HAS A NEW DROUGHT SECTION WHICH YOU CAN
ACCESS AT : WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/ELPDROUGHTPAGE

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT 
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...
U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/MAPSANDDATA/COMPARISONSLIDER.ASPX
NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE...HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATEHR.GOV/PRECIP 
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/SUPPLEMENTALINFO/LINKS.ASPX
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX
PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/RT

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: 
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT 
INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC 
DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE 
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
7955 AIRPORT ROAD
SANTA TERESA NM 88008
PHONE...575-589-4088
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EPZ/

$$

NOVLAN
AXUS74 KEPZ 292036 CCA
DGTEPZ
NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056-

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu