399 FXUS65 KABQ 231731 AAC AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1031 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 .AVIATION... 18Z TAF CYCLE Upper low center analyzed over sern UT to move to wrn OK by 24/06Z with strong nw to nly winds aloft developing over NM. Mts obscured by MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys in sct rain and snow showers with showers becoming isold over the se NM plains. W-nw winds gusting to 45kt along and south of Interstate 40 through 24/02Z will diminish as nly winds associated with a backdoor cold front strengthen over ne NM aft 23/21Z and gust to around 45kt. Although precipitation will decrease aft 24/02Z, areas MVFR cigs may persist over wrn and central NM through 24/12Z before improving. && .PREV DISCUSSION...854 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020... .UPDATE... Made some adjustments to the wind advisory as KSRR was nearly hitting high wind in the last hour. Also added Union and Harding county to the wind advisory for later this afternoon and evening with the H7 temperatures diving and hefty pressure rises forecast in that area. Did not add thunder to the wx grids although we know it is around the ABQ and SAF metros at this time as it looks to be somewhat random although it does appear to be in vicinity of the frontal boundary. Updated ZFP just transmitted. && .PREV DISCUSSION...242 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020... .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will blast through New Mexico today and allow rain to change to snow in the higher terrain. A few inches are likely over the northern mountains and across the far northeast plains. Strong northwest winds will develop over the state today with widespread wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, especially over the eastern plains. A brief break is expected on Monday with warmer temperatures, however windy conditions will persist over the region. A strong cold front will surge through the state Tuesday with more strong winds and a slight chance for light snow across northeast New Mexico. Tuesday night will be the coldest night in the past couple weeks with single digits across the northern mountains and teens and 20s elsewhere. A slow warming trend will begin Thursday with lots of 50s and 60s by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)... Closed upper-level low is forecast to slide eastward along the NM-CO border today. Precipitation will favor the northern and western mountains today, mainly in the form of snow as temperatures drop behind the associated cold front. Added the Johnson and Bartlett Mesas including Raton Pass zone to the winter weather advisory with several inches of accumulation a good bet above 7000 feet likely impacting travel at/near pass level. As surface low pressure deepens across northeast NM this afternoon, wind will be the main weather impact for many locations but especially for areas east of the central mountain chain and near and south of Interstate 40. Issued a wind advisory as a result with sustained west winds in the 30 to 40 mph with gusts to 50 mph likely by afternoon. Upper low shifts east of the state on Monday with dry northwest flow aloft moving in. Meanwhile, a bitterly cold upper-level trough sliding southeastward through WY and northeast CO is forecast to send a backdoor cold front into northeast NM late Monday afternoon. Very cold air will start to push into Union and far eastern Colfax counties toward sunset Monday. LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)... A much colder airmass will surge south through the rest of eastern NM Monday night as a 120 kt polar jet shifts through the central Rockies. Strong cold air advection plummets 700mb temps to near -12C behind the front with widespread windy conditions once again for the region Tuesday afternoon. The wind will make it feel more like mid winter. Model guidance trended lighter with snowfall across northeast NM Monday night and Tuesday despite a moist, mid level baroclinic zone over the area in the wake of the departing upper level trough. The low level airmass is just way too dry and surface convergence is weak so PoPs were lowered to only slight chance. The very dry airmass building into the area with strong surface high pressure will lead to the coldest morning in a couple weeks on Wednesday morning. Single digits will be common over the northern mountains with teens and 20s elsewhere. Northwest flow aloft will continue Wednesday and Thursday with a couple weak back door fronts expected over northeast NM. The overall pattern will be more tranquil with slowly warming temps and sunny skies. A weak upper level ridge is projected Friday with even warmer temps, light winds, and more sunny skies. This ridge will break down over the weekend with increasing high clouds and near normal temps. 33/Guyer && .FIRE WEATHER... While rain and snow showers continue in western and northern portions of the state today, strong west winds will develop mainly east of the central mountain chain and along and south of Interstate 40. Strong winds are forecast to combine with a dry airmass to produce an hour or two of marginal critical conditions for the east- central and southeast plains Monday afternoon. A strong but dry cold front is forecast to bring bitter cold temperatures to the northeast half or so of the state Monday night and Tuesday. The cold condtions continue into Wednesday before temperatures rebound to near seasonal averages for late February on Thursday and Friday. 33 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for the following zones... NMZ202-210-211-213-214. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for the following zones... NMZ223-226-233>240. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for the following zones... NMZ227. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight MST tonight for the following zones... NMZ230-231. && $$ |