055 FXUS65 KABQ 151137 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 537 AM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018 .AVIATION... 12Z TAF CYCLE Through the morning, unsettled weather will continue over many areas within northern and central New Mexico with periodic showers, low clouds, fog, mountain obscurations, and gusty winds in some central and far eastern locales. This morning, scattered showers will be most common over the northern half of the state with areas of more persistent northern mountain snow. Look for wide-ranging aviation categories from VFR in drier pockets to VLIFR conditions where more persistent wintry precipitation and fog is found. Strongest wind gusts to 25 to 30 kt will be near KABQ and KCVS/KCVN through mid morning. Conditions will improve overall by early afternoon, but some lingering mountain obscurations are expected with only localized MVFR conditions in remnant showers. Precipitation will tend to concentrate along the Continental Divide this afternoon into tonight, but in general will be less widespread. 52 && .PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018... .SYNOPSIS... Wintry precipitation spreads over western New Mexico today while diminishing in intensity across eastern New Mexico. There will be areas of freezing fog possible atop the higher terrain this morning, with reduced visibility from snow at lower elevations. Temperatures will be well below normal across the state with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies for most, with the exception of right near the Four Corners region. Rain and snow showers expand over western New Mexico Tuesday, shifting north into the Four Corners by Wednesday. Temperatures gradually climb through the week, but will remain below normal. && .DISCUSSION... This morning starts off with the backdoor front having progressed south through eastern NM and west through the RGV. A low layer cloud deck blankets much of the state, except the Four Corners and San Francisco River Valley. The larger parent mid-level trough is digging into far western AZ where it will develop into a new closed low today. Light drizzle and snow showers continue along a band through east-central NM, just N of I-40 with sporadic showers over western NM. Have decided to keep Winter Storm highlights the same, with the exception of dropping the Upper Rio Grande Valley/Taos zone where only light snow accumulations are expected at this time. The main winter weather hazards at this time remain to be reduced visibility from snow along I-40 and I-25 through the NE quarter of the state. Freezing fog will also be possible over the NM San Juans/Tusas as well as the Sacramento Mtns. Light showers of rain/snow are expected to expand over western NM as the upper low develops over AZ today with gradual diminishing of shower intensity over eastern NM. I-40 near the continental divide could see some periods of reduced visibility from snow, however temperatures are not forecast to be cold enough to allow for snow accumulations to cause travel issues. Highs have come up across eastern NM today where cloud coverage is expected to clear a bit later this afternoon, allowing for some sfc heating before sunset. Colder temperatures remain across the east- central highlands. Areawide highs still remain well below normal today. The upper low deepens over south-central AZ tonight with shower activity continuing over southern and western NM. Models are in good agreement showing a lobe of vorticity whipping around the southern and eastern edge of the upper low Tuesday, enhancing coverage of convective showers over western and southern NM. There will likely be a few rumbles of thunder. This should bring very beneficial moisture to western NM. Meanwhile, continued SW flow aloft over persistent drier E/NE upslope flow into the east side of the Sacramento Mtns could allow for prolonged periods of freezing fog or light drizzle. Some ice accumulation is possible over the higher elevations of the Sacramento Mtns as a result tonight through Tuesday. The upper low shifts N Wednesday with shower activity favoring the Four Corners region. Thursday, the low fills and opens with some moisture working into far southeastern NM producing the chance for showers there. By Friday and into the weekend a rex-block pattern sets up with the upper low redeveloping over AZ and high setting up over the NW Pacific region. This will keep daily chances for showers and afternoon storms favoring western and southern NM. Highs will remain below normal through the week and into the weekend. 24 && .FIRE WEATHER... No critical or significant fire weather concerns are expected this week. The weather pattern will be dictated by a deepening low pressure system west of NM. This feature will keep a cool, and relatively moist atmosphere in place over much of the forecast. Today will begin with freezing temperatures in much of the area, catalyzing the cool season curing of vegetation and fuels. As spokes of moisture circulate around the developing low pressure system, bouts of light precipitation will periodically be drawn over NM, some of it being of the wintry variety with high elevation snow and freezing drizzle/rain in some lower elevation locations. Winds will be brisk in several central to west central areas through mid week as the upper low draws in a widespread synoptic easterly flow, but again RH values will be too high to warrant any critical fire weather. 52 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning until noon MDT today for the following zones... NMZ517-518-525-536-537-539-540. Hard Freeze Warning until noon MDT today for the following zones... NMZ524-535. Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for the following zones... NMZ510-511-521-522-531>534. Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for the following zones... NMZ512>515-523-527>530. Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for the following zones... NMZ501. && $$ |