Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KABQ 202336 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
536 PM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are in progress, mostly over
western and northern New Mexico, where gusty downburst winds and
brief downpours will be possible through the early evening. Storm
activity will gradually diminish thereafter. New storms will develop
on Saturday, but will be much more sparse and isolated through the
afternoon and evening hours. Hot temperatures will produce high 
density altitude readings at the surface, posing difficult conditions
for aircraft ascents. 



.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MDT Fri Jul 20 2018...
Strong high pressure over eastern New Mexico and west Texas will 
continue to keep temperatures above to well above seasonal averages 
through the weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances will trend down
Saturday before increasing slightly on Sunday. As the high shifts 
west of New Mexico Monday, a relatively strong front will drop into 
the state from the northeast, resulting in a significant increase in
afternoon and evening showers and Thursday Monday and Tuesday next 
and possibly beyond.


Upper high center shifting to northeast NM this afternoon. Storm
motion has become more northerly as a result. Models agree that the 
high will continue to shift slightly farther east on Saturday.
Meanwhile, bone dry air at/near 500mb along with a strengthening
subsidence inversions will limit thunderstorm coverage Saturday, now
looking like a bonafide downday. Best shot at an isolated storm or 
two will be across far northwest and north-central NM where some 
mid- level moisture and slightly better instability is forecast to
remain. Heat will be the main weather story during the weekend as
many locations approach records for the date underneath a strong 
(598dm) upper high. Issued a heat advisory for east-central and 
southeastern portions of the forecast area for Saturday afternoon and
early evening as a result of the high heights and lack of cloud cover.

Four Corner's high shifts back wwd over NM Sunday and moreso Monday.
This shift allows the deep monsoon moisture plume over AZ to move up
and around the high center and over CO Sunday. All the rain-cooled 
air from afternoon and evening convection over CO results in a 
quite the backdoor front for NM Monday. NAM, GFS and ECMWF agree in 
an increase in thunderstorm coverage Monday and Tuesday but disagree 
on the magnitude of the increase. GFS goes bonkers with widespread 
showers and storms for much of the state through next week. NAM and 
ECWMF are more conservative with QPF but have the same general idea. 
High temperatures cool down somewhat next week but still remain
slightly above to above seasonal averages for late July. 

Four Corners high lives up to its name late next week into the 
weekend with more reinforcing shots of moisture moving into NM on 
backdoor fronts/boundaries.



Upper high center over New Mexico today to slide towards and over 
the Texas Panhandle/West Texas by Saturday, then migrate back to the 
west early to mid next week. Vent rates will be mostly good to 
excellent Saturday but diminish Sunday with areas of fair rates west 
and central. 

Storm coverage this afternoon started out similar to yesterday. Slow 
storm motions to the north and northeast are most likely over 
northern New Mexico while over the west central/southwest, storm 
motions trend a little more to the northwest. Some erratic motion is 
possible as well due to interaction of outflow boundaries. Some 
locally heavy rainfall is possible this afternoon and evening which 
could lead to flash flooding. Another boundary is forecast to move 
into north central and northeast New Mexico early this evening, 
resulting in a northerly wind shift. 

Forecast models continue to suggest increased drying Saturday and 
Sunday for a minimum in the number and areal coverage of showers and 
storms both days. High temperatures will continue to range from 
about 5 to around 15 degrees above average through Sunday with some 
near record to record highs possible in the eastern plains Saturday 
and Sunday.  

The relative lull in monsoon activity may see an abrupt ending with 
an upper disturbance and associated cold front forecast to track 
into northeast New Mexico Sunday night and the front surging through 
the plains and through the central mountain chain Monday/Monday 
night. The ECMWF remains less enthusiastic concerning the areal 
coverage of convection and precipitation amounts but is somewhat 
similar with the surface and upper air pattern. Both the GFS and 
ECMWF reorganize the upper high center over AZ and the Great Basin 
later next week which allows fronts/outflow boundaries to produce 
moisture surges into eastern New Mexico. 


Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for the following zones...

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM MDT Saturday for the following 
zones... NMZ533>538.



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Western Regional Climate Center,