Weather Service Report


857 
FXUS65 KABQ 202223
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
323 PM MST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will cross the southwest US this week 
keeping the weather dry. A back door cold front will produce gusty
northeast winds across the eastern plains on Tuesday with speeds 
peaking near 40 mph along the eastern border. After cooler
temperatures on Tuesday, readings will rebound during the latter half
of the work week. Some near record and record high temperatures will
be possible starting Wednesday west of the continental divide, before 
spreading to include parts of the east Thursday and spreading even
more on Friday. Friday should be the warmest day of the week with
highs 13 to 23 degrees above normal and some readings near 80 degrees
on the eastern plains. Another back door cold front will drop 
southward through the eastern plains Friday night, cooling 
temperatures some across the east; however, high temperatures will 
continue to be well above normal this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A strong ridge of high pressure that began to build over California 
and Nevada today, will migrate gradually eastward over Arizona as the
week progresses, then across New Mexico this weekend. The ridge will
help keep the storm track north of New Mexico this week, but a 
couple back door cold fronts will sag into the eastern plains: 
a gusty one Tuesday, and the other one Friday night. Except for some
cooling with the cold fronts, high temperatures will generally be
above normal this week, especially during the latter half of the work
week when near record and record high temperatures are expected in
some areas. Despite some cooling across the plains behind Friday
night's back door cold front, highs should continue to vary around 8
to 18 degrees above normal through the weekend.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dewpoints have plummeted across northern and central NM today with 
RH dropping to less than 10 percent in many areas. A stout jet 
stream is arching over the Pacific Northwest and diving into the 
central to southern Rockies. Consequently, strong ridge top winds 
have been mixing and spreading into the adjacent central highlands 
and east central plains. This is leading to some marginal critical 
conditions stretching along the Interstate 40 corridor from Clines 
Corners to Santa Rosa. These critical conditions will slowly abate 
into the evening, but some gusty ridge top winds will persist into 
the overnight as the jet gradually shifts east. Poor RH recovery 
will impact many central to eastern NM zones tonight into early 
Tuesday morning. 

Before the jet can fully shift east of NM, a potent disturbance 
aloft will race southeastward in it, shoving a cold front southward 
into the forecast area. This will bring gusty north winds into the 
plains Tuesday, with a few hours of gusts as high as 30 to 40 mph, 
primarily around midday. The front will bring a notable cooling 
trend, mostly to eastern NM, but daytime highs will still remain 
near to above normal. Winds will quickly diminish toward Tuesday 
evening. 

The ridge of high pressure over the Baja is still projected to 
strengthen and dominate the weather over the American Southwest 
Wednesday through the holiday weekend. Very warm, even record-
breaking temperatures, are expected for many zones with dry 
conditions and generally light to moderate breezes. While no adverse 
or critical fire weather is foreseen, smoke ventilation rates will 
suffer with poor dispersion expected through most of the holiday 
weekend. 

52

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE 
High clouds will be prevalent today with winds aloft increasing from
the northwest. Winds will be strongest near and immediately downwind
(east southeast) of the central mountain chain of New Mexico where
some mountain wave activity will induce turbulence. Wind gusts will
occasionally reach 40 to 45 kt near/downwind of the central mountain
chain with surface gusts generally staying lighter outside of these
areas. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail. A cold front will 
invade New Mexico from the north early Tuesday morning with gusts of 
25 to 35 kt developing in the eastern plains of the state.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  26  60  29  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Dulce...........................  17  57  27  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Cuba............................  26  57  29  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Gallup..........................  22  63  25  66 /   0   0   0   0 
El Morro........................  20  61  24  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Grants..........................  24  62  25  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Quemado.........................  30  62  32  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Glenwood........................  35  74  37  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Chama...........................  21  53  24  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Los Alamos......................  33  58  34  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Pecos...........................  35  60  30  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Cerro/Questa....................  26  52  27  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Red River.......................  25  45  25  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Angel Fire......................  21  51  21  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Taos............................  21  56  23  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Mora............................  34  58  27  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Espanola........................  29  62  32  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Fe........................  33  58  33  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Fe Airport................  30  60  30  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Albuquerque Foothills...........  36  63  38  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Albuquerque Heights.............  35  64  36  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Albuquerque Valley..............  31  66  33  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  34  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Los Lunas.......................  26  67  29  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Rio Rancho......................  34  63  34  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Socorro.........................  35  68  34  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  31  60  31  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Tijeras.........................  31  60  31  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Moriarty/Estancia...............  28  64  26  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Clines Corners..................  34  60  30  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Gran Quivira....................  36  64  31  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Carrizozo.......................  39  68  35  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Ruidoso.........................  40  64  31  60 /   0   0   0   0 
Capulin.........................  33  52  26  61 /   0   0   0   0 
Raton...........................  33  57  25  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Springer........................  34  60  25  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Las Vegas.......................  36  60  28  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Clayton.........................  39  56  31  65 /   0   0   0   0 
Roy.............................  36  59  28  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Conchas.........................  41  63  34  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Santa Rosa......................  41  65  32  67 /   0   0   0   0 
Tucumcari.......................  39  63  31  66 /   0   0   0   0 
Clovis..........................  40  64  33  62 /   0   0   0   0 
Portales........................  40  66  33  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Fort Sumner.....................  41  65  32  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Roswell.........................  39  71  35  63 /   0   0   0   0 
Picacho.........................  47  68  34  64 /   0   0   0   0 
Elk.............................  45  66  32  62 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for the following 
zones... NMZ107-108.

&&

$$

44

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu