152 FXUS65 KABQ 130655 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1255 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 - There is a high risk of burn scar flash flooding today and a low to moderate chance of off-scar flash flooding with stronger storms that develop along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. - Storms in central and eastern New Mexico have the potential to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening. - The active monsoon pattern is expected to continue into next week, keeping the threat of burn scar flash flooding moderate to high each day through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Sunday will be another active monsoon day, with showers and storms focusing over central NM as the upper-level ridge builds northward over The Great Basin. Storm motion will be to the south/southwest as a result so lower elevation locations just to the southwest of the high terrain will be the favored locations to see afternoon storms. Storms will not be stationary, but propagation of storms over the high terrain could allow for persistent moderate to heavy rainfall rates, mainly over the high terrain. This is of particular concern over the Ruidoso area burn scars. Most likely rainfall in the Ruidoso area is 0.2 to 0.4" range, however the 90th percentile rainfall is in excess of 1" and would likely occur if storms do propagate upstream (north) over the Sacramento mountains. A few instances of flash flooding are likely along the central mountain chain outside of burn scars as well given the efficient rainfall rates and the aformentioned northward propagation. The most unstable environment will actually be over the eastern plains (sfc based CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg), but most hi-res models are generating little to no precipitation out there since storms over the mountains will get carried southward as opposed to eastward. Boundary collisions could tap into the unstable environment in the southeast plains, creating heavy rainfall in the southeast plains, including Roswell during the late evening hours where storms will be more "boom or bust". North to northeast flow aloft persists Monday, resulting in another round of storms that will favor central NM. Some drier air will work in across the northeast, limiting precipitation chances somewhat across the east. Burn scar flash flooding will be the principal concern and another flash flood watch will likely be needed for the Ruidoso area. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Tuesday will be another repeat of Monday with near average PWATs and storms moving from north to south. Precipitation chances trend higher Wednesday as the Low over Baja California advects a plume of mid-level moisture into New Mexico from the south. PWATs will rise to around 120% of normal mid-week, favoring more efficient rainfall rates from storms that develop. Numerous storms each afternoon and evening are likely Wednesday through Friday with this monsoonal surge and global models appear to be holding onto storms well into the overnight hours each day. This does introduce some uncertainty since overnight convection has the potential to limit afternoon destabilization, but its difficult to predict if/when this will occur. High pressure is expected to re-develop within the vicinity of the Four Corners over the weekend into early next week, which will allow for moisture to recycle underneath the high and keep afternoon storm chances around for the foreseeable future. Slow storm motions mid to late week will enhance the risk of flash flooding, both on and off burn scars. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1133 PM MDT Sat Jul 12 2025 A few storms remain in eastern NM, but activity is not expected to persist much longer. While there is a low chance (<20%) that MVFR to IFR cigs develop in the east overnight, confidence was not high enough to include in any TAFs. Storms tomorrow will develop around 18Z, moving S/SW at around 10 kts. Boundary collisions will create a peak in storm coverage around 00Z, with storms ending around 06Z. Terminals in central NM near the mountains will be the most likely to see storms tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1247 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected through the next 7 days. Scattered to numerous storms are likely each afternoon and evening, generally favoring the high terrain of central and northern NM. Storms will move from north to south Sunday through Tuesday, becoming slower and more erratic mid to late week. Typical monsoon hazards of small hail, gusty outflow winds, and flash flooding will be a concern each day. Widespread wetting rainfall is likely, with the highest chances in the northern mountains and along the central mountain chain. Multi-day rainfall totals in excess of 1" are likely across much of central and eastern NM. Humidity recoveries the next several days will be good to excellent in central and eastern NM, with fair recoveries in the west. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 97 65 96 62 / 5 10 10 20 Dulce........................... 91 47 91 46 / 50 30 60 30 Cuba............................ 88 55 87 56 / 40 30 40 50 Gallup.......................... 95 53 92 51 / 5 20 40 40 El Morro........................ 90 56 87 54 / 20 30 60 60 Grants.......................... 93 55 89 54 / 20 30 50 50 Quemado......................... 92 57 89 57 / 30 50 70 70 Magdalena....................... 89 60 85 62 / 40 50 50 40 Datil........................... 88 55 84 55 / 40 50 60 40 Reserve......................... 96 52 91 53 / 50 50 70 50 Glenwood........................ 100 57 94 58 / 50 50 70 50 Chama........................... 84 47 83 47 / 60 30 60 40 Los Alamos...................... 84 58 83 60 / 60 30 50 60 Pecos........................... 82 55 81 56 / 60 30 40 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 82 52 84 54 / 50 20 50 50 Red River....................... 72 44 75 45 / 50 20 60 50 Angel Fire...................... 75 38 76 40 / 60 20 50 30 Taos............................ 84 50 86 52 / 50 20 40 50 Mora............................ 79 49 80 50 / 70 30 40 20 Espanola........................ 91 58 92 60 / 60 30 40 50 Santa Fe........................ 84 58 84 60 / 60 30 40 50 Santa Fe Airport................ 88 57 88 59 / 60 30 40 40 Albuquerque Foothills........... 93 65 91 68 / 40 30 40 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 94 64 92 66 / 30 30 20 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 97 63 94 66 / 30 30 20 30 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 95 65 92 67 / 30 30 20 40 Belen........................... 96 62 93 63 / 20 40 20 30 Bernalillo...................... 96 63 94 65 / 30 30 30 50 Bosque Farms.................... 96 61 93 63 / 20 30 20 30 Corrales........................ 96 64 94 66 / 30 30 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 96 63 93 65 / 20 30 20 30 Placitas........................ 91 62 89 65 / 40 30 30 50 Rio Rancho...................... 95 63 93 66 / 30 30 20 40 Socorro......................... 98 65 94 66 / 30 50 30 30 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 87 56 85 59 / 60 30 40 40 Tijeras......................... 88 58 86 61 / 50 30 40 40 Edgewood........................ 88 52 86 55 / 60 30 40 30 Moriarty/Estancia............... 88 52 86 54 / 50 30 30 20 Clines Corners.................. 80 54 79 56 / 60 40 30 20 Mountainair..................... 87 55 83 57 / 60 40 40 20 Gran Quivira.................... 85 55 81 57 / 50 50 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 88 60 84 62 / 50 50 50 10 Ruidoso......................... 80 55 75 55 / 70 50 70 10 Capulin......................... 79 53 81 54 / 30 20 10 10 Raton........................... 84 53 85 54 / 30 20 20 10 Springer........................ 85 55 87 55 / 50 20 20 10 Las Vegas....................... 80 52 81 54 / 60 30 30 20 Clayton......................... 84 60 87 62 / 20 20 10 10 Roy............................. 82 57 83 59 / 40 30 10 10 Conchas......................... 88 63 89 65 / 30 30 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 85 60 85 62 / 40 40 10 10 Tucumcari....................... 85 60 87 63 / 20 30 10 10 Clovis.......................... 88 63 87 64 / 20 40 10 10 Portales........................ 88 64 88 65 / 20 40 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 89 63 87 64 / 20 40 10 10 Roswell......................... 91 67 89 68 / 20 40 20 10 Picacho......................... 86 60 84 60 / 40 40 30 10 Elk............................. 85 57 81 57 / 60 40 50 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ212- 214-215-221>224-226-229-233-239. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....16 AVIATION...16 |