Weather Service Report


055 
FXUS65 KABQ 151137 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
537 AM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Through the morning, unsettled weather will continue over many areas
within northern and central New Mexico with periodic showers, low 
clouds, fog, mountain obscurations, and gusty winds in some central 
and far eastern locales. This morning, scattered showers will be 
most common over the northern half of the state with areas of more 
persistent northern mountain snow. Look for wide-ranging aviation 
categories from VFR in drier pockets to VLIFR conditions where more 
persistent wintry precipitation and fog is found. Strongest wind 
gusts to 25 to 30 kt will be near KABQ and KCVS/KCVN through mid 
morning. Conditions will improve overall by early afternoon, but some
lingering mountain obscurations are expected with only localized 
MVFR conditions in remnant showers. Precipitation will tend to 
concentrate along the Continental Divide this afternoon into 
tonight, but in general will be less widespread.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...304 AM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018...
.SYNOPSIS...
Wintry precipitation spreads over western New Mexico today while
diminishing in intensity across eastern New Mexico. There will be areas
of freezing fog possible atop the higher terrain this morning, with 
reduced visibility from snow at lower elevations. Temperatures will 
be well below normal across the state with mostly cloudy to cloudy 
skies for most, with the exception of right near the Four Corners 
region. Rain and snow showers expand over western New Mexico Tuesday,
shifting north into the Four Corners by Wednesday. Temperatures 
gradually climb through the week, but will remain below normal. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning starts off with the backdoor front having progressed 
south through eastern NM and west through the RGV. A low layer cloud
deck blankets much of the state, except the Four Corners and San 
Francisco River Valley. The larger parent mid-level trough is 
digging into far western AZ where it will develop into a new closed 
low today. Light drizzle and snow showers continue along a band 
through east-central NM, just N of I-40 with sporadic showers over 
western NM. Have decided to keep Winter Storm highlights the same, 
with the exception of dropping the Upper Rio Grande Valley/Taos zone 
where only light snow accumulations are expected at this time. The 
main winter weather hazards at this time remain to be reduced 
visibility from snow along I-40 and I-25 through the NE quarter of 
the state. Freezing fog will also be possible over the NM San 
Juans/Tusas as well as the Sacramento Mtns. Light showers of 
rain/snow are expected to expand over western NM as the upper low 
develops over AZ today with gradual diminishing of shower intensity 
over eastern NM. I-40 near the continental divide could see some 
periods of reduced visibility from snow, however temperatures are not
forecast to be cold enough to allow for snow accumulations to cause 
travel issues. 

Highs have come up across eastern NM today where cloud coverage is 
expected to clear a bit later this afternoon, allowing for some sfc 
heating before sunset. Colder temperatures remain across the east-
central highlands. Areawide highs still remain well below normal 
today.

The upper low deepens over south-central AZ tonight with shower 
activity continuing over southern and western NM. Models are in good 
agreement showing a lobe of vorticity whipping around the southern 
and eastern edge of the upper low Tuesday, enhancing coverage of 
convective showers over western and southern NM. There will likely be
a few rumbles of thunder. This should bring very beneficial moisture
to western NM. Meanwhile, continued SW flow aloft over persistent 
drier E/NE upslope flow into the east side of the Sacramento Mtns 
could allow for prolonged periods of freezing fog or light drizzle. 
Some ice accumulation is possible over the higher elevations of the 
Sacramento Mtns as a result tonight through Tuesday. 

The upper low shifts N Wednesday with shower activity favoring the
Four Corners region. Thursday, the low fills and opens with some
moisture working into far southeastern NM producing the chance for
showers there. By Friday and into the weekend a rex-block pattern
sets up with the upper low redeveloping over AZ and high setting up
over the NW Pacific region. This will keep daily chances for showers
and afternoon storms favoring western and southern NM. Highs will
remain below normal through the week and into the weekend. 

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No critical or significant fire weather concerns are expected this 
week. The weather pattern will be dictated by a deepening low 
pressure system west of NM. This feature will keep a cool, and 
relatively moist atmosphere in place over much of the forecast. 
Today will begin with freezing temperatures in much of the area, 
catalyzing the cool season curing of vegetation and fuels. As spokes 
of moisture circulate around the developing low pressure system, 
bouts of light precipitation will periodically be drawn over NM, 
some of it being of the wintry variety with high elevation snow and 
freezing drizzle/rain in some lower elevation locations. Winds will 
be brisk in several central to west central areas through mid week 
as the upper low draws in a widespread synoptic easterly flow, but 
again RH values will be too high to warrant any critical fire 
weather.

52 

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until noon MDT today for the following zones... 
NMZ517-518-525-536-537-539-540.

Hard Freeze Warning until noon MDT today for the following zones... 
NMZ524-535.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT today for the following 
zones... NMZ510-511-521-522-531>534.

Winter Storm Warning until noon MDT today for the following zones...
 NMZ512>515-523-527>530.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for the following 
zones... NMZ501.

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu