928
FXUS65 KBOI 250930
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
330 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...SE Oregon and SW Idaho
reside on the northern fringes of monsoon moisture which extends
into the Great Basin. The moisture is being directed into our
area from an upper trough near the northern California coast. The
highest precipitable water values of around an inch exist across
the southern parts of the forecast area. This also where the
models are indicating the best instability and therefore the
greatest potential for thunderstorms with heavy rain. A Flash
Flood Watch is in effect for these areas this afternoon and
evening. The upper trough is projected to track very slowly to the
northeast through northern California tonight and Wednesday. The
moist unstable southwest flow will continue to support a chance of
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday, especially near the
Nevada border and in the Boise Mountains. Temperatures will be
near normal.
.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through Tuesday...Upper level trough
will track over the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday. This is
expected to continue showers and thunderstorms during the
overnight hours and through Thursday afternoon. With precipitable
water values near an inch, heavy rain will be a threat, despite
storm motions of 20 kts or more. By Friday, the upper ridge to the
southeast will begin to build in once again. The GFS and ECMWF
differ on the extent of monsoon moisture making its way into the
area, but temperatures will nonetheless be above normal through
the period.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR with mid-high level clouds. Showers and
thunderstorms, mainly south of a line KBNO-KSNT. Expect gusty
winds near thunderstorms to 40 kts. Otherwise, surface winds
generally 10 kts or less. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: north 5-10
kts.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening
IDZ015-029-030.
OR...Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ today through this
evening ORZ061-063.
&&
$$
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SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....EP
AVIATION.....EP
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