Weather Service Report


749 
FXUS65 KBOI 160308
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
908 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.DISCUSSION...An area of showers and thunderstorms has moved into
southern Harney and Malheur counties this evening. Most activity 
is beginning to weaken with loss of daytime heating. Have seen
outflow winds of 45-55 MPH across higher terrain in Harney county
this evening and continued eastward propagation of these winds 
will need to be monitored. Expect most activity to diminish by 06Z
tonight with isolated shower and thunderstorm threat across 
s-central ID zones after midnight. Have updated the forecast to
mostly lower precipitation chances after midnight. 

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Showers and thunderstorms through 16/09Z. Surface  
winds: variable at 10 kts or less, with gusty outflow winds of 45 
kts possible near thunderstorms. Winds aloft near 10 KFT MSL: SW-
NW 5-15kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday...Short wave trough off
the northwest coast has developed scattered thunderstorms from
monsoon moisture in southern Oregon.  As the trough moves inland
this evening thunderstorms will shift east into southwest Idaho,
and into south-central Idaho overnight and Monday. In addition to
lightning, the main weather threat this evening will be downdraft
and outflow winds near thunderstorms.  High-resolution models are
even forecasting damaging winds in central Harney and Malheur 
Counties around or just after sunset.  Red flag warnings for high
fire danger will continue through the night in Harney and Malheur
Counties, as well as in Idaho south of the Snake River. The upper 
trough will still be over the northwest states Monday, and more 
thunderstorms with gusty winds may form just about anywhere in the 
CWA Monday afternoon. The trough and thunderstorms will shift east 
out of our CWA Monday night, and drier air with clear skies will 
follow Tuesday and Wednesday. Clouds and showers will slightly 
lower temperatures Monday, but Tuesday will be warmer again and 
Wednesday will be hot under a flat upper ridge.

LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Sunday...Little change to 
temperatures as the upper level ridge will remain over the Desert  
Southwest with above normal temperatures (around 5-10 degrees) 
through the period. Expect dry conditions as westerly flow keeps 
the monsoon moisture south of the Nevada border through the 
period.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM MDT Monday IDZ423-426.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM MDT /5 AM PDT/ Monday ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...LC
PREV LONG TERM....KA

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu