Weather Service Report


148 
FXUS65 KBYZ 231641
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT 
941 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.UPDATE...

Minor update to adjust hourly temperatures, dewpoints and relative
humidity toward latest observations and guidance. Otherwise
forecast remains on track. Today will be another mild day with
light winds and increasing cloudiness from west to east. RMS

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Monday night...

Mainly clear skies for the night and the rest of the morning. A
weak cold front currently located in northeastern Montana will
slowly move south and pass through us later this morning, but
winds swiftly switch to the south, pulling in some warm air and
keeping Sundays highs reaching the 40s. Winds near Livingston will
slowly pick up Sunday evening as the pressure gradient tightens
over the Beartooth/Absarokas, and gust up to 50 mph that night and
through Monday.

Beginning Sunday night, an upper shortwave trough begins to move 
through the area, bringing with it a quick shot of a rain and snow
mix. Brief low-level convergence will bring this shot of precip, 
but the switch to westerly, fairly downslope winds may dry out 
areas too much to receive anything from this first round. However,
any wet surfaces will likely freeze over overnight, and icy 
conditions may be possible Monday morning. Any snow at low 
elevations will be minimal, but the mountains may receive up to 
half a foot of snow. As the trough reaches eastern Montana, it 
seems like it'll invert and becomes a closed-off upper low, which 
will bring a second round of snow to our east late Monday through 
Tuesday morning, where many locations could see 2-3 inches of 
snow, with locally higher amounts possible in the foothills near 
the Bighorn Mountains. Prior to this upper low and associated cold
front, good mixing and strong winds aloft (easily 50+ kt winds at
700-800 mb) will bring high widespread winds across south-central
and southeastern Montana, mostly from late Monday morning through
the evening. However, enough large-scale ascent may be present to
prevent high winds aloft from consistently reaching the surface, 
so winds may act in an isolated manner, with just gusts up to 50 
mph here and there. Regardless, this brings about a blowing snow 
concern as it overlaps with the second round of snow late Monday.
A continuation of downsloping winds for monday will help
temperatures reach the low 40s before the cold front passes
through, but with lows reaching the teens Monday night.

Vertz

Tuesday through Saturday...

Early week storm system moves southeast of the area on Tuesday.
Light snow will linger through the morning south and east of a 
Miles City to Hardin line into the mid-day hours along with gusty 
northerly winds and areas of blowing snow. By mid afternoon winds
and snow should taper off. Clearing develops Tuesday night, but
another clipper type system moves through the area Wednesday
through Thursday. Any snow that does develop with this system 
will be very light and mainly confined to northwest facing 
foothills and mountain locations and the higher hills across SE 
Montana. Highs Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 35 to 45
degree range, coolest over SE Montana. Ridging develops Friday 
through next weekend for warmer and dry conditions, with highs
becoming established in the 50s. Gusty to occasionally strong
winds can be expected in the western foothills (Livingston) just 
about every day of the extended. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the next 24 hours.
A cold front will cross the area tonight, bringing a wind shift, 
increased wind speeds, and some precipitation. Light snow will 
impact KLVM this evening, bringing about a period of MVFR-IFR 
conditions. Rain/snow mix is possible tonight near KBIL and KMLS, 
which would bring about localized MVFR to IFR conditions. Vertz/RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 030/041 022/036 021/044 029/048 029/052 032/055
    0/U 42/S    61/N    01/E    11/B    10/U    00/U
LVM 047 026/035 018/034 020/043 028/045 028/050 029/052
    0/N 86/S    50/B    01/N    11/N    10/N    01/N
HDN 046 027/042 021/034 015/044 026/047 027/052 028/056
    0/U 53/S    72/S    01/B    22/R    10/U    00/U
MLS 042 029/037 018/029 013/037 023/043 025/048 027/052
    0/U 65/S    81/N    00/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
4BQ 045 027/039 018/029 012/039 023/043 025/049 025/053
    0/U 34/S    83/S    01/B    12/R    10/U    00/U
BHK 038 024/034 015/026 005/033 016/038 020/043 023/047
    0/U 46/S    82/S    00/B    11/B    00/U    00/U
SHR 042 022/036 016/028 007/039 021/041 022/046 024/051
    0/U 56/S    84/S    01/B    22/O    10/U    00/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
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