Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KCYS 221124

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
524 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) 
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Another clear and quiet morning across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska with some high clouds starting to push into the
region ahead of the broad upper level trough/low moving across the
Great Basin today. IR satellite loop shows two distinct shortwaves
embedded in the broad disturbance aloft. One shortwave is moving
northward across the northern Great Basin and is not expected to
influence the weather across southeast Wyoming, the southern
shortwave is currently moving across the southern Great Basin and
Arizona, with thunderstorms continuing across Utah and Arizona
early this morning. This shortwave will influence the weather over
the next few days, although impacts should be minimal at best. For
today and tonight, do not expect much change to the weather
compared to the last few days with the exception of increased
cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures.

For Tuesday, high res models show widely scattered showers moving
northward into Carbon and Albany counties early in the morning,
with activity slowly spreading eastward through the day. However,
this is a low confidence forecast since the coverage is still
greatly in question. The GFS has trended towards the ECMWF
solution showing the main shortwave, and associated jet energy, 
remaining to the south of the area, due to the weaker ridging 
across the Great Plains. Kept POP mainly between 20 to 40 percent 
through Tuesday, highest in the mountains. This forecast may even
be overdone based on the recent NAM and short range ensembles.
Expect the highest chance of rainfall to be Tuesday night and into
Wednesday as the shortwave lifts northeast into Kansas and
Oklahoma. Outside of some high elevation light snow, impacts will
be very limited. 

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) 
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

Models now in better agreement through the remainder of the week,
showing the broad Pacific trough/disturbance moving into the 
central plains late Wednesday with any shower activity across 
western Nebraska coming to an end late in the afternoon. 
Otherwise, models continue to indicate a return to northwest flow 
aloft with seasonably cool temperatures. Winds may become more of 
a concern for southeast Wyoming late Thursday through Saturday as 
low to midlevel gradients increase ahead of a series of 
progressive upper level shortwaves moving southeast out of 
southern Canada. 


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 519 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this morning and 
afternoon. An approaching weather system will begin to affect the 
area from the west this evening and overnight. Mid level CIGS will
develop in the later afternoon dropping overnight. MVFR to IFR 
conditions will be possible as low CIGS and areas of fog are 
likely to develop in the easterly upslope flow overnight through 
early Tuesday. 


Issued at 226 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

No Fire Weather concerns this week with higher humidities 
expected beginning today as surface winds shift into the east, 
and eventually, southeast. Isolated to widely scattered showers 
with a small chance of thunder is expected Tuesday and Wednesday 
over southeast Wyoming, with a better chance of rainfall further 
east across western Nebraska. Temperatures will lower slightly 
through mid week. 





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