874 FXUS65 KCYS 090418 AFDCYS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cheyenne WY 1018 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of Carbon County through Wednesday evening due to very dry conditions alongside breezy winds. - There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather both today, Wednesday, and Thursday. - Active pattern will continue as monsoonal moisture moves into the region today through Wednesday. - Much cooler Thursday night and Friday as a strong cold front moves south across the high plains. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A few echoes going up across the region this afternoon, but overall parameters are marginal for stronger to severe thunderstorms. While instability is there, support for activity is meager including poor shear, but there is enough support for hail growth that these storms could have marginal to near severe hail alongside gusty winds thanks to inverted V soundings. Non- supercell tornado parameters are also around 1-2 near the Wyoming border, so some of this activity could potentially produce a weak landspout though overall probability still remains unlikely. Meanwhile further west, bone dry conditions are noted with RH values in Carbon County down into the single digits and winds gusting around 25-30 mph. A red flag warning was issued this morning to account for these critical fire weather conditions, which will continue into tomorrow evening thanks to poor overnight recoveries alongside another round of breezy winds and critical RH values tomorrow. Into Wednesday, expecting even less coverage of thunderstorm activity as ridging continues to surge over us and we see even warmer temperatures. It could be one of the hottest days we've seen this year, with highs into the 90's to triple digits for locations across the CWA. Meanwhile we're just barely clipped by a marginal risk for severe weather primarily in the northeastern Nebraska Panhandle, and high resolution guidance agrees we'll barely see much in the way activity through the evening. That being said, as a surge of moisture moves in from the west and troughing begins to overtake the ridging, a round of showers and possibly some storms could move into our drier areas of Carbon and Albany Counties by early Thursday morning. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 221 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Thursday, A cold front drops down from our Canadian neighbor to the north. This will drag down some cooler air to drop temps into the 70's on Friday to cool us off from the 80's to 90's occurring on Thursday. With this front the global models show some showers occurring overnight as they place between 500 to 1000 joules of CAPE with this front. The Intermountain West may see a few tenths of rain to up to an inch in some areas according to the Max/Min 24hr QPF spread. This weekend looks fairly warm as another ridge sets up with Sunday being the warmer of the days. Saturday looks to be in the 70's to 80's while sunday will be 80's to 90's as that ridge axis pivots across our area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1016 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Ridging aloft will produce dry and hot weather through the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear. Winds will gust to 25 knots at the Wyoming terminals from 15Z to 01Z. && .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WY...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ420>423-425- 427. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CG LONG TERM...MM AVIATION...RUBIN |