651
FXUS66 KEKA 202209
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
309 PM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...A slight cooling trend is expected over the weekend
across the interior, followed by a warming trend that will begin
Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late tonight
through Sunday. Coastal conditions will remain relatively
persistent.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Hot and dry conditions persist throughout interior
areas today, with temperatures approaching and even eclipsing 100
degrees in many interior valleys by early afternoon. Along the
coast, typical cool conditions have also persisted, although
stratus has been restricted to a very shallow layer along the
southwestern Humboldt and Mendocino coastline...essentially all
areas south of Punta Gorda. Conditions along the coast will
largely persist for the next several days; however, a slight
cooling trend can be expected throughout the interior over the
weekend. Temperatures inland will still be warm, likely well into
the 90s both Saturday and Sunday, but this is at least a little
bit closer to normal for this time of year and any relief is
helpful.
Meanwhile, chances for isolated thunderstorms will increase
overnight tonight as increasing mid level moisture and instability
moves into Mendocino County. While probabilities are low, there
remains a chance for a few isolated lightning strikes after
midnight and into Saturday morning from elevated and mostly dry
thunderstorms. Additional isolated thunderstorm development is
expected Saturday afternoon across the mountains of eastern
Mendocino and Trinity Counties, with slightly better chances yet
expected Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm chances will decrease
Monday and beyond, but a few isolated storms cant be completely
ruled out across northeastern Trinity County through at least the
middle of the week.
Monday and beyond, interior temperatures are expected to enter
into a prolonged warming trend, likely reaching back to near and
slightly above 100 degrees for much of the work week. Much more
significant heat can be expected across southern and central
California, but at least a Moderate Heat Risk is expected to
develop locally here as well. /BRC
&&
.AVIATION...Along the Redwood Coast today, several weather
occurrences are noted: The Mendocino Coast was totally blanketed
with marine stratus, that even extended into local river valleys.
Estimating from area PIREPs, bases were as low as 004 feet; tops
012-015 feet which impacted coastal airfields into afternoon.
North of the Cape: Very little stratus formations except pockets
from Coastal Humboldt Bay to Trinidad. ACV CIGs briefly dropped
into MVFR-IFR in the mid- late morning. Some lingering fractus
continued offshore into early afternoon. Haze was quite prevalent
today and was reported along much of the North Coast. CEC reported
MVFR CIGS this morning as VIS Satellite indicated a layer of
smoke which was confirmed by an official weather spotter.
Therefore, ACV & CEC should see more marine clouds
evening/overnight, but this afternoon prognosis for CEC indicating
more limited "marine"cloud cover. Interior areas will remain VFR
with some smoke intrusion over inland flying areas, although
Saturday will experience some convective cloud development. UKI
may see SCT005 in the early morning as stratus stretched up to the
Mendocino/Sonoma border this morning and should do so tomorrow.
/TA
&&
.MARINE...Strong to gale force northerly winds will persist
across the outer waters through tonight with stronger gusts near
30 kt possible around Point Saint George and Cape Mendocino.
Additionally, southerly winds have developed along the Mendocino
coast and are expected to continue through late Saturday. Winds
will diminish through the weekend into early next week as the
pressure gradient relaxes. However, gusts near 30 to 40 kt will
remain possible across the northern outer waters through Saturday.
A small craft advisory has replaced the gale warning for the
southern outer waters as winds started diminishing earlier today.
Seas remained steep as of late this afternoon with nearshore buoys
reporting very steep 10 to 13 ft waves. As a result, a hazardous
sea warning was issued for the northern inner waters through late
tonight. Large, steep seas will gradually subside into the
weekend.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Gusty offshore winds across the high elevations of
Del Norte County have weakened somewhat this afternoon, but will
strengthen again during the evening and last through the night and
into Saturday morning. Similar speeds can be expected, with
sustained wind speeds around 15 mph and gusts to 30 mph. Overnight
recoveries were once again good in Del Norte county last night,
and are expected to be moderate to good once again tonight. Drier
conditions will occur farther north across Curry County, OR.
Offshore winds will begin a weakening trend tomorrow afternoon
that will carry through the weekend.
Temperatures are expected to cool slightly tomorrow through
Sunday in most areas, but will remain generally near to slightly
above normal. However, temperatures will rise above normal once
again Monday and continue through much of next week, resulting in
an extended period of hot and dry conditions.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible throughout Mendocino
county overnight tonight and Saturday morning, but lightning
strikes are expected to be few and far between should any develop
at all. Additional isolated thunderstorms will be possible across
the mountains of eastern Mendocino and Trinity counties Saturday
and Sunday afternoons, with the best chances occurring Sunday.
/BRC
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ102-107-108-111.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ470.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ475.
&&
$$
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