Weather Service Report


645 
FXUS66 KEKA 151138
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
438 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Near to above normal temperatures and dry conditions 
will prevail across Northwest California through the upcoming
week. Breezy east winds across higher elevations will begin to 
decrease today. 


&&

.DISCUSSION...Southerly surge of stratus yesterday morning put a very
large damper on the warm temperatures along the coast. I will 
begin this discussion that overall forecast certainty in the short
term is not very high due to competing factors of a large area of
stratus currently off our coast, weakening easterly flow, and a 
very dry airmass aloft. While models are handling the latter two 
very well it is not resolving the coastal stratus very well. Many
of the 00Z model runs had the stratus early on however through 
model processes promptly deteriorated the coastal stratus after 
only a few hours which has clearly not happened. Easterly winds 
have yet again enhanced just above the surface and have been able 
to weaken the marine layer and push the stratus just off shore. 
Therefore it would seem logical that through later this morning 
coastal stratus will remain off the coast and coastal locations 
may see a quick warm up this morning. The downside is that 
easterly winds will be weakening as we go through the day today 
therefore coastal stratus could very easily surge back towards the
coast by this afternoon. If this does happen temperatures will 
immediately cool and stop any appreciable warm up from occurring. Across
Trinity County clear skies, dry air, and light winds within 
sheltered valleys have led to freezing temperatures around 
Hayfork and surrounding areas. As a reminder, the official 
growing season does end today therefore no more frost/freeze 
products will be issued for Trinity County.

For the remainder of the week, near normal temperatures, dry 
conditions, and sunny skies across the interior will prevail.
Unfortunately, along the coast typical stratus and fog will be 
possible each morning. As stated above though the confidence in 
coastal stratus is not very high at this moment therefore the 
possibility does exist for a few clear mornings along the coast  
with only patchy shallow ground fog forming. If coastal locations
do clear out low temperatures will need to be lowered by several 
degrees to allow for radiational cooling. Model guidance is now 
indicating that wetter weather may return late this weekend into 
early next week so if you have hated the dry weather 
pattern...hope is on the horizon! /WCI


&&

.AVIATION...Marine stratus blankets most of the coast this morning, 
with impacts being felt at both coastal terminals overnight. Latest 
satellite imagery shows this stratus slowly retreating offshore; 
however, periods of IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility will be 
possible along the coast through at least this morning until the 
stratus retreats a little farther offshore. Inland terminals should 
anticipate mainly VFR conditions throughout the rest of today with a 
dry airmass in place over the area. In addition, periods of weak to 
modest low-level wind shear will be possible through the morning at 
KACV and KUKI. 


&&

.MARINE...Weak and variable winds over the coastal waters will give 
way to a light to gentle breeze from the north Monday night into 
Tuesday. Seas will begin to build overnight Tuesday and peaking 
around 8 feet over the outer waters around the Wednesday afternoon 
timeframe. Otherwise, a northwesterly swell will persist through the 
upcoming week. This swell will initially be around 2 to 3 feet at 11 
to 13 seconds during early week, then increase to around 7 feet at 
16 to 18 seconds by Wednesday night. Additionally, a southwesterly 
swell around 3 feet at 16 to 18 seconds will continue until late in 
the week. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Several stations this morning are reporting gusty
offshore easterly winds of 35-50 mph with humidity values in the
single digits to teens therefore the red flag warning remains in
effect through this morning. Offshore flow will begin to weaken
later this morning and into the afternoon leading to primarily
light winds across the region for the rest of the week. Even
though winds will be lighter, very low humidity values will
continue through the week which will allow elevated fire weather
concerns to persist. /WCI 

&&


.BEACH HAZARDS...Hazardous beach conditions will be possible 
beginning Wednesday morning with the arrival of a longer period 
northwesterly swell, in combination with a longer period 
southwesterly swell. Beach goers should exercise caution by
staying further away from the ocean and never turning your back 
to the ocean as hazardous waves can occur at any time. 


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for CAZ201-203-204-
     211-212-276-277-283.

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ107-108.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ113.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&

$$

Visit us at http://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
http://www.twitter.com/nwseureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
http://www.weather.gov/eureka/zonemap.png

Return to Home page


Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu