298 FXUS65 KFGZ 201039 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 339 AM MST Sat Oct 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather with shower and thunderstorm chances can be expected each day through early next week. Daytime temperatures will be near normal, and snowfall will be confined to the highest mountain peaks. Dry weather returns Wednesday and will likely persist through the remainder of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning reveals a deepening area of low pressure off the California coast. This will be the main weather maker through early next week for northern Arizona. The system will draw moisture into the area from the southeast with increasing cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm chances. Model guidance continues to struggle with the amount of convection today, but the majority of guidance indicates it may be until later in the afternoon/evening before we start to see much in the way of development. Therefore, opted to reduce POPs slightly through late afternoon. The favored area to see showers and storms through early this evening would be along and south of the Mogollon Rim. Lift increases later this evening and overnight with higher chances for showers especially across Coconino and Yavapai counties. More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is still anticipated Sunday as a shortwave trough lifts through the area. Shear profiles indicate some potential for organized convection, but the lack of instability should limit this potential. The low will slowly lift toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday with continued shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. The low will finally exit the area Wednesday with a return to dry weather expected. This dry weather will likely persist through the remainder of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds eastward over the southwestern US. Snow levels will remain high through the forecast period, confining any snow to the highest mountain peaks of northern Arizona. && .AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions through 16Z. ISOLD MVFR possible after 16Z. There is a slight chance for showers developing after 16Z, generally south of a KPRC-KFLG-KSJN line, then spreading NW through the day. ISOLD TSRA 20Z-02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough along the California Coast will bring an increase in moisture over the Northland this weekend. Expect showers and a few thunderstorms today and Sunday, with higher relative humidity and lower wind speeds. .Monday through Wednesday...Showers will continue across the area Monday and Tuesday, with dry and warmer conditions Wednesday through the rest of the week. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ PUBLIC...TPS AVIATION...MAS FIRE WEATHER...MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff |