Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KFGZ 160423

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
923 PM MST Sun Jul 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...The monsoon weather pattern will continue over
Arizona through next week, with daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. The main threat with storms today will be heavy
rainfall and localized flooding.


.DISCUSSION...Stratiform light rain is all that remains from
another day of active monsoonal activity in northern Arizona.
Expect lingering showers into the overnight hours. Little changes
in the weather pattern as we head into early next week. Light
easterly flow and a very moist airmass over the region will
continue to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon. An elevated flash flooding threat will remain in place
as light steering flow combines with saturated soils from the 
past weeks rain. With the light easterly flow persisting, expect 
the Mogollon Rim, western Coconino, and Yavapai counties to
continue to have the greatest threat for widespread heavy

THe current forecast handles this well and no updates are needed 
at this time.


.PREV DISCUSSION /238 PM MST/...Little change in the weather
pattern is expected over the next week, with weak flow and only
minor changes in the position and intensity of the high parked
over the SW. We expect the robust monsoon conditions to continue
through the forecast period, with PW values continuing to run
well above average - at or above 1" for the Flagstaff area. Long
range ensembles are hinting at some drying by next weekend, but
certainly not enough to significantly diminish the threat of
significant thunderstorms each day.

With soils becoming more and more saturated across N. Arizona, the
daily threat of flash flooding will persist with the thunderstorms
forming the area.

Today's forecast is on track, with heavy rain and high rainfall
rates (2-3" / hr) reported across the area. We'll continue the
Flash Flood Watch through 7 PM MST. Primary threat area this
afternoon and evening will lean toward Yavapai County, where
instability (CAPES to 2500) will engender the production of
additional thunderstorm activity.


.AVIATION...For the 06Z package...Expect mostly VFR conditions and 
light winds across northern Arizona. A few lingering -SHRA/-TSRA may 
persist north of the Mogollon Rim over night. Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA 
will begin over higher terrain after 18Z becoming wide spread in the 
afternoon and diminishing after 02Z. Local MVFR/IFR conditions with 
gusty, erratic winds near the showers and thunderstorms. Aviation 
discussion not updated for TAF amendments. 


.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with a threat of 
heavy rain each afternoon/evening will continue through Friday. 
Light winds will produce slow moving storms with heavy rainfall. 
Moisture will begin to decrease by the weekend in to next week with 
thunderstorm coverage becoming more isolated. Gusty and erratic 
winds may develop near thunderstorms.  






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