Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KFGZ 231540

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
840 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers associated with the weekend storm
system will persist on Sunday, with dry weather forecast from
Monday onward.


.DISCUSSION...Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows the
mid-level closed low that has brought rain and snow to northern
Arizona is pushing into Colorado and New Mexico. Radar shows snow
showers continuing behind the low, but the main band of
precipitation has exited to the east. HiRes model guidance 
suggests lingering shower activity will clear from west to east 
through the day, with dry conditions area-wide by midnight 
tonight. Aside from that, a breezy northwest wind will setup this 
afternoon, with daytime temperatures near to a few degrees below 
normal at most places.

In terms of forecast updates, only some minor decreases were made
to today's temperatures. In addition, some small changes were made
to the chances for showers to match up with the most recent HiRes
model guidance.


.PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/... Current model analysis shows the
closed low pressure system moving over northern Arizona early this
morning. Associated instability will allow for early morning show
activity continue across the area from west to east.

Some shower activity will persist across the region through the
day today. However most of the activity will be in the east as dry
air moves in behind the cold front through the day.

Will let the winter weather advisory for the Chuska Mountains and
Defiance Plateau continue since the forecast appears on track
with snowfall amounts.

Elsewhere snowfall appears to be lining up with the previous
forecast. Early morning web camera imagery, while sparse, is
showing accumulations on cold surfaces on track with expectations.
Some road surfaces, that were able to maintain a higher
temperature are seeing less accumulations outside of the heavier
bands of precipitation.

Behind this storm system as the week goes on, dry weather is going
to return to the region. A dry cold front will move through the
area on Tuesday keeping temperatures down, causing some breezy
conditons, but not providing any atonal precipitation.

Dry and mild conditions are expected through the rest of the week.

Long range forecasts are hinting at another chance of
precipitation early next week, however at over 7 days into the
future confidence remains low that models solutions are correct
about any sort of timing or impacts.


.AVIATION....MVFR/IFR conditions in rain, snow and fog over 
higher terrain will clear from west to east through 21Z today. 
Lingering -SHSN will continue along the New Mexico border through 
00Z. Expect mostly clear conditions after 00Z Monday, but fog may
form in eastern portions of the Little Colorado River Valley 
overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Rain and snow showers will clear from west to east 
through the day today. Monday will be the start of a dry period 
with breezy northwesterly winds.

.Tuesday through Thursday....Dry northeasterly breezes will keep 
temperatures cool Tuesday.  Wednesday and Thursday will warm each 
day with breezy northeasterly winds.


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until 5
PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ011. 




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