447 FXUS65 KFGZ 090836 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 136 AM MST Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Isolated storms/showers will continue across the High Country today, becoming more limited to the White Mountains Thursday and Friday. Precipitation chances look to once again increase across the higher elevation locations this weekend and into next week. Outside of showers/storms, hot temperatures will continue. && .DISCUSSION...Heat and isolated storms will continue to be the main topics today, as high pressure remains center over Arizona. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas below 4000' at the Grand Canyon, across Yavapai County, and northern Gila County. With the soaring daytime highs, be sure to avoid strenuous activity during the hottest part of the day (~11 AM - 7 PM), and drink plenty of water. Similar to yesterday, some locations may see relief from the heat due to showers/storms forming this afternoon. Although widespread wetting rain in not expected, we can't rule out an isolated storm or two producing brief heavy rain. Dry lightning will also be a concern, due to the continued dry conditions. Thursday and Friday...A weak trough will slide across the Great Basin Region, weakening the previously mentioned ridge. As this ridge flattens over the Southwest, moisture will become limited to the White Mountains, but daytime highs will continue to stay on the hot side. Over the Weekend & into Next Week...High pressure will once again build across the Southwest, keeping daytime highs hot and potentially allowing moisture to return across the High Country. The synoptic pattern suggested on model guidance is not a favorable monsoon pattern, but it still looks to allow moisture to push in from the south. Confidence is still low on how next week will shake out, but we'll continue to monitor the trends through the week. && .AVIATION...Wednesday 09/06Z through Thursday 10/06Z...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Light and variable winds, becoming W-SW winds 10-20 kts after 16Z. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA along a KFLG-KSOW-KJTC line. Gusty and erratic outflow winds expected in and near TS. OUTLOOK...Thursday 10/06Z through Saturday 12/06Z...VFR conditions continue. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA along and south of KSOW-KSJN line 18Z-03Z each day. W-SW winds 15-25 kts Thursday, then by 10-20 kts on Friday. Expect light and variable winds overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Hot and mostly dry conditions expected today and Thursday. Slight chances for showers/storms across the high terrain each afternoon. Minimum RH values forecast to range between 10-20% each afternoon with overnight recoveries 30-60%. Look for westerly winds 10-25 mph, gusting near 30 mph each afternoon. Gusty winds possible near storms. Friday through Sunday...Hot and mainly dry conditions forecast for Friday, but increasing chances for showers/storms returns over the weekend across the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Minimum RH values look to be 5-15% north of the Mogollon Rim, and 10-25% along and south of the Rim each afternoon. Overnight recoveries 30-60% anticipated. Look for generally west winds 10-20 mph each afternoon, but gusty/erratic winds possible near storms. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006. Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ018-037. && $$ PUBLIC...Konieczny AVIATION...Meola FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff |