651 FXUS65 KFGZ 231540 AFDFGZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 840 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers associated with the weekend storm system will persist on Sunday, with dry weather forecast from Monday onward. && .DISCUSSION...Current satellite and upper-air analysis shows the mid-level closed low that has brought rain and snow to northern Arizona is pushing into Colorado and New Mexico. Radar shows snow showers continuing behind the low, but the main band of precipitation has exited to the east. HiRes model guidance suggests lingering shower activity will clear from west to east through the day, with dry conditions area-wide by midnight tonight. Aside from that, a breezy northwest wind will setup this afternoon, with daytime temperatures near to a few degrees below normal at most places. In terms of forecast updates, only some minor decreases were made to today's temperatures. In addition, some small changes were made to the chances for showers to match up with the most recent HiRes model guidance. && .PREV DISCUSSION /335 AM MST/... Current model analysis shows the closed low pressure system moving over northern Arizona early this morning. Associated instability will allow for early morning show activity continue across the area from west to east. Some shower activity will persist across the region through the day today. However most of the activity will be in the east as dry air moves in behind the cold front through the day. Will let the winter weather advisory for the Chuska Mountains and Defiance Plateau continue since the forecast appears on track with snowfall amounts. Elsewhere snowfall appears to be lining up with the previous forecast. Early morning web camera imagery, while sparse, is showing accumulations on cold surfaces on track with expectations. Some road surfaces, that were able to maintain a higher temperature are seeing less accumulations outside of the heavier bands of precipitation. Behind this storm system as the week goes on, dry weather is going to return to the region. A dry cold front will move through the area on Tuesday keeping temperatures down, causing some breezy conditons, but not providing any atonal precipitation. Dry and mild conditions are expected through the rest of the week. Long range forecasts are hinting at another chance of precipitation early next week, however at over 7 days into the future confidence remains low that models solutions are correct about any sort of timing or impacts. && .AVIATION....MVFR/IFR conditions in rain, snow and fog over higher terrain will clear from west to east through 21Z today. Lingering -SHSN will continue along the New Mexico border through 00Z. Expect mostly clear conditions after 00Z Monday, but fog may form in eastern portions of the Little Colorado River Valley overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Rain and snow showers will clear from west to east through the day today. Monday will be the start of a dry period with breezy northwesterly winds. .Tuesday through Thursday....Dry northeasterly breezes will keep temperatures cool Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will warm each day with breezy northeasterly winds. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon FOR AZZ011. && $$ PUBLIC...RR/Suk AVIATION...NL FIRE WEATHER...DB For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff |