Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KFGZ 201039

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
339 AM MST Sat Oct 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather with shower and thunderstorm chances
can be expected each day through early next week. Daytime 
temperatures will be near normal, and snowfall will be confined to
the highest mountain peaks. Dry weather returns Wednesday and 
will likely persist through the remainder of next week.


.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning reveals a deepening
area of low pressure off the California coast. This will be the
main weather maker through early next week for northern Arizona.
The system will draw moisture into the area from the southeast 
with increasing cloud cover and shower/thunderstorm chances. Model
guidance continues to struggle with the amount of convection 
today, but the majority of guidance indicates it may be until 
later in the afternoon/evening before we start to see much in the 
way of development. Therefore, opted to reduce POPs slightly 
through late afternoon. The favored area to see showers and storms
through early this evening would be along and south of the 
Mogollon Rim. Lift increases later this evening and overnight 
with higher chances for showers especially across Coconino and 
Yavapai counties.

More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is still
anticipated Sunday as a shortwave trough lifts through the area.
Shear profiles indicate some potential for organized convection,
but the lack of instability should limit this potential. The low
will slowly lift toward the northeast on Monday and Tuesday with
continued shower and thunderstorm chances across the region. The 
low will finally exit the area Wednesday with a return to dry 
weather expected. This dry weather will likely persist through the
remainder of the week as a ridge of high pressure builds eastward
over the southwestern US.

Snow levels will remain high through the forecast period, 
confining any snow to the highest mountain peaks of northern 


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions through 
16Z. ISOLD MVFR possible after 16Z. There is a slight chance for 
showers developing after 16Z, generally south of a KPRC-KFLG-KSJN 
line, then spreading NW through the day. ISOLD TSRA 20Z-02Z. 
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A trough along the California Coast will bring  
an increase in moisture over the Northland this weekend. Expect 
showers and a few thunderstorms today and Sunday, with higher 
relative humidity and lower wind speeds. 

.Monday through Wednesday...Showers will continue across the area 
Monday and Tuesday, with dry and warmer conditions Wednesday through 
the rest of the week. 






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