Weather Service Report


421 
FXUS65 KGGW 240259
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
759 PM MST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...for northeast Montana...tonight through Fri...
Evening Update:

Combined the 6 & 9 pm updates with the rapidly changing fire
weather issues tonight. Made adjustments with the wind forecast
with the lull before the cold arrives around midnight kicking the
winds up again for the overnight hours. Made a few changes with
the timing of the front and conditions expected with it.  Proton

Previous Discussion:

Today will go down in the record books with temperatures smashing
previous records by quite a bit. The high today was achieved
thanks to more sunshine than expected and strong downsloping west
winds. Surface low pressure over Alberta/Sask this afternoon was
the weather system in the driver's seat. It will move east tonight
and allow a cold front to drop south into the CWA late tonight.
Cold Air Advection coupled with strong mid-level winds will allow
for winds to increase a bit after they diminish late today, with
warning criteria speeds expected for areas in SW Phillips County.
Lake Wind Advisory winds are expected over Fort Peck lake.

The GFS, which did a splendid job this morning picking out the
timing/placement with the clearing today, may be a bit too wet
later tonight, showing good coverage of showers in the southern
zones. Still leaned on it heavily since is had a good track record
today.

Friday, NW winds will bring cooler air in, but no arctic cold.
Sunshine should allow temperatures to reach the 40s to near 50,
about 10 degrees above normal. TFJ


.LONG TERM...Fri night through Thu...

12z models didn't show too much different than what previous
models showed. Precipitation on Monday continues to split around
us and therefore not too many concerns yet. Yo-yo temperatures
continue. TFJ

Previous Discussion...
Ridge continues to rebound through the weekend with another warm
front lifting across the region on Sunday for temperatures 
warming again into the 50s or lower 60s. 

The rebounding ridge is in response to a trof digging south from
the Gulf of Alaska. This trof moves through western Canada and the
Great Basin on Monday. Models remain in better agreement with
most of the moisture and energy splitting around northeast Montana
and the best chance for precipitation across the southern zones as
a cold front sweeps through the state. Temperatures should drop to
near normal on Tuesday before the western ridge begins to rebound.
Ebert



&&

.AVIATION...

Flight Conditions: VFR.

Mid-level clouds will increase then showers will develop
especially close the Glendive area late tonight as a cold front
sweeps in from the NW. 

LLWS is possible later tonight in the vicinity of the cold front. 



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag warning is in effect until 11pm for the western half of
the forecast area. Major grass fire reported in Central Phillips
county. The fire was very visible on satellite until the high
clouds moved in. The radar had the plume from the fire for the
afternoon and early evening hours, and now the plume has gone from
the radar image. Strong wind and low relative humidity lead to
ability of the grass fire to spread rapidly this afternoon. Do
expect by 11pm with RH recovery and some light showers moving into
the area the RFW will be allow to expire by then.  Proton 


&&

.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for MTZ134>137. 

High Wind Warning until 6 AM MST Friday for Southwest Phillips. 

Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM MST Friday For Fort Peck Lake for 
Central and Southeast Phillips...Central and Southern Valley...
Garfield...McCone...Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow

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