358 FXUS65 KGGW 012039 AFDGGW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Glasgow MT 239 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot conditions remain in place through Thursday, before turning cooler for the holiday weekend. - Scattered late afternoon and evening thunderstorms Wednesday will bring potential for strong to severe wind gusts. - A more active pattern will maintain daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next week. WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper ridge will be building across the region over the next few days, bringing hot and dry weather through midweek. Wednesday is expected to be the hottest day, with high temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s. A Heat Advisory has been maintained for much of northeast Montana, with potential expansion if the 50th-75th percentile of the NBM verifies for more widespread readings at or above 100. Thursday afternoon looks to be a few degrees cooler due to increased cloud cover, but this will limit overnight recovery. Ensembles show upper ridging sliding east ahead of the next low pressure system for the midweek. This will set up a more active weather pattern with increased low-level moisture heading into the 4th of July holiday. Daily chances for thunderstorms return in the afternoon and evening hours starting Wednesday. The primary severe threat for Wednesday looks to be focused between 5-11pm for wind downbursts. Temperatures will begin trending much cooler into the weekend with 70s for highs by Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: The NBM was used for the forecast population with minimal deviation needed to capture expected trends. Confidence is high on mainly warm and dry weather through the next couple of days, while still medium for the occurrence of widespread triple digit heat. Confidence is described as growing on increasing chances for thunderstorms to return each day starting Wednesday. && .AVIATION... Flight Category: VFR Discussion: High pressure across the area will mean mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, with little to no daytime convective development through around 21Z Wednesday. && .GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Central and Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Dawson-Garfield- McCone-Northern Phillips-Northern Valley-Petroleum-Prairie- Southwest Phillips-Western Roosevelt. && $$ weather.gov/glasgow |