Weather Service Report


748 
FXUS65 KTFX 151052
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
451 AM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018

UPDATED AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...

A high pressure ridge will be the predominant weather feature 
over our area through this upcoming weekend. Thus, an overall 
warming trend and primarily fair weather are expected. Periods of 
breezy winds will occur, especially along and near the Rocky 
Mountain Front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through next Monday...Northerly flow aloft persists over our
CWA today as a high pressure ridge aloft remains centered just 
offshore WA. A few light snow and/or rain showers are possible 
through this morning as a disturbance embedded within the flow 
aloft moves southward. However, the probability of measurable
precipitation is very low. This disturbance and diurnal mixing of
the boundary layer will yield breezy southwesterly to westerly
surface winds over north-central MT today, especially during the 
late morning through early evening hours. Fair weather is expected
region-wide this afternoon through Monday of next week as the 
aforementioned high pressure ridge aloft drifts eastward. However,
this ridge may be temporarily broken-down on Wednesday through 
Friday as shortwave disturbances move generally eastward and 
southeastward over western and central Canada. Simultaneously, an
eventual cut-off low aloft over the southwest U.S. finally ejects
northeastward. Near-normal to slightly above-normal high and low 
temperatures are expected through the period. At this time, 
Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday look to be the warmest days, with 
highs reaching well into the 60's for many plains and valley 
locations.
- Jaszka 

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 1051Z.

VFR and northwesterly to northerly flow aloft persist next 24-hours 
as high pressure aloft builds gradually from the west. A subtle 
disturbance within the flow aloft crosses our area this morning and 
may be accompanied by a few light snow and/or rain showers. However, 
these showers are not expected to yield sub-VFR conditions. Breezy 
southwesterly to westerly surface winds are expected in north-
central MT, especially between 16Z/Mon and 01Z/Tue.
- Jaszka

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  58  32  59  36 /  10   0   0   0 
CTB  57  31  60  32 /   0   0   0   0 
HLN  56  31  58  34 /   0   0   0   0 
BZN  53  26  55  30 /   0   0   0   0 
WEY  45  18  52  20 /   0   0   0   0 
DLN  51  25  54  29 /   0   0   0   0 
HVR  60  36  60  35 /  10   0   0   0 
LWT  54  33  57  34 /  10   0   0   0 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu