748 FXUS65 KTFX 151052 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 451 AM MDT Mon Oct 15 2018 UPDATED AVIATION .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will be the predominant weather feature over our area through this upcoming weekend. Thus, an overall warming trend and primarily fair weather are expected. Periods of breezy winds will occur, especially along and near the Rocky Mountain Front. && .DISCUSSION... Today through next Monday...Northerly flow aloft persists over our CWA today as a high pressure ridge aloft remains centered just offshore WA. A few light snow and/or rain showers are possible through this morning as a disturbance embedded within the flow aloft moves southward. However, the probability of measurable precipitation is very low. This disturbance and diurnal mixing of the boundary layer will yield breezy southwesterly to westerly surface winds over north-central MT today, especially during the late morning through early evening hours. Fair weather is expected region-wide this afternoon through Monday of next week as the aforementioned high pressure ridge aloft drifts eastward. However, this ridge may be temporarily broken-down on Wednesday through Friday as shortwave disturbances move generally eastward and southeastward over western and central Canada. Simultaneously, an eventual cut-off low aloft over the southwest U.S. finally ejects northeastward. Near-normal to slightly above-normal high and low temperatures are expected through the period. At this time, Wednesday, Saturday, and Sunday look to be the warmest days, with highs reaching well into the 60's for many plains and valley locations. - Jaszka && .AVIATION... Updated 1051Z. VFR and northwesterly to northerly flow aloft persist next 24-hours as high pressure aloft builds gradually from the west. A subtle disturbance within the flow aloft crosses our area this morning and may be accompanied by a few light snow and/or rain showers. However, these showers are not expected to yield sub-VFR conditions. Breezy southwesterly to westerly surface winds are expected in north- central MT, especially between 16Z/Mon and 01Z/Tue. - Jaszka && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 58 32 59 36 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 57 31 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 56 31 58 34 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 53 26 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 WEY 45 18 52 20 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 51 25 54 29 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 60 36 60 35 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 54 33 57 34 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls |