Weather Service Report


472 
FXUS65 KTFX 160301
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
901 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

.UPDATE...

Most of forecast through daybreak tomorrow remains valid.
Increased cloud cover over much of the CWA, especially south of
the Hi-Line, given latest observed trends and 00Z/Mon HRRR 
guidance, which matched reality best. Also increased POPs and
adjusted QPF accordingly over far-southwest MT. Here, a few
showers and thunderstorms remain possible through daybreak Monday
due to an approaching disturbance's warm conveyor belt undergoing
weak isentropic lift amidst appreciable moisture and instability.
- Jaszka 

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly build over the
northern Rockies over the next few days. As a result, expect
warmer temperatures to gradually move into the region. Afternoon
highs are likely to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s across the
entire region through the entire week. Additionally, weak upper
level disturbances will move through Southwest MT, producing
scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly Monday afternoon
through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 2307Z.

Mainly VFR and westerly flow aloft expected next 30-hours as a high 
pressure ridge builds gradually over the area. However, a 
disturbance aloft centered offshore far-northern CA at this time 
moves northeastward to central ID by 06Z/Tue. Accordingly, isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are expected over/near the higher terrain 
of southwest and central MT between 16Z/Mon and 06Z/Tue, with the 
best potential for this activity spanning Mon afternoon and evening. 
Erratic surface wind gusts of 30-50 knots and brief MVFR are 
possible in/near any shower or storm.
- Jaszka 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 507 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018/

Today through Tuesday...No significant changes to the current
forecast. An isolated thunderstorm is possible towards daybreak
near the MT/ID border in Southwest MT otherwise an upper level
disturbance will move into Southwest MT on Monday
afternoon/evening. This disturbance will likely produce some
scattered thunderstorms. A strong storm is possible, but coverage
of the stronger storms looks quite low at this time. A few storms
continue on Tuesday, but mainly over the eastern portions of the
region. Expect above normal temperatures through the period.

For Tuesday night through Sunday...overall a very warm period is
expected. Afternoon temperatures could slowly fall back into the
upper 80s by next weekend, but any cooling effects will be
minimal. The chances for showers/storms looks very low at this
time over the later portions of next week, thus pops are generally
less than 10 percent for most areas. Brusda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  55  91  60  91 /   0   0   0  10 
CTB  50  90  53  92 /  10   0   0  10 
HLN  57  87  59  89 /   0  10  10  20 
BZN  54  83  56  84 /   0  20  20  40 
WEY  49  74  45  76 /  20  30  30  30 
DLN  55  82  53  83 /  10  20  30  20 
HVR  53  92  60  94 /   0   0   0  20 
LWT  55  84  58  83 /   0   0  10  40 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu