472 FXUS65 KTFX 160301 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 901 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 .UPDATE... Most of forecast through daybreak tomorrow remains valid. Increased cloud cover over much of the CWA, especially south of the Hi-Line, given latest observed trends and 00Z/Mon HRRR guidance, which matched reality best. Also increased POPs and adjusted QPF accordingly over far-southwest MT. Here, a few showers and thunderstorms remain possible through daybreak Monday due to an approaching disturbance's warm conveyor belt undergoing weak isentropic lift amidst appreciable moisture and instability. - Jaszka && .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge of high pressure will slowly build over the northern Rockies over the next few days. As a result, expect warmer temperatures to gradually move into the region. Afternoon highs are likely to range from the mid 80s to mid 90s across the entire region through the entire week. Additionally, weak upper level disturbances will move through Southwest MT, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly Monday afternoon through Tuesday. && .AVIATION... Updated 2307Z. Mainly VFR and westerly flow aloft expected next 30-hours as a high pressure ridge builds gradually over the area. However, a disturbance aloft centered offshore far-northern CA at this time moves northeastward to central ID by 06Z/Tue. Accordingly, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over/near the higher terrain of southwest and central MT between 16Z/Mon and 06Z/Tue, with the best potential for this activity spanning Mon afternoon and evening. Erratic surface wind gusts of 30-50 knots and brief MVFR are possible in/near any shower or storm. - Jaszka && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 507 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018/ Today through Tuesday...No significant changes to the current forecast. An isolated thunderstorm is possible towards daybreak near the MT/ID border in Southwest MT otherwise an upper level disturbance will move into Southwest MT on Monday afternoon/evening. This disturbance will likely produce some scattered thunderstorms. A strong storm is possible, but coverage of the stronger storms looks quite low at this time. A few storms continue on Tuesday, but mainly over the eastern portions of the region. Expect above normal temperatures through the period. For Tuesday night through Sunday...overall a very warm period is expected. Afternoon temperatures could slowly fall back into the upper 80s by next weekend, but any cooling effects will be minimal. The chances for showers/storms looks very low at this time over the later portions of next week, thus pops are generally less than 10 percent for most areas. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 55 91 60 91 / 0 0 0 10 CTB 50 90 53 92 / 10 0 0 10 HLN 57 87 59 89 / 0 10 10 20 BZN 54 83 56 84 / 0 20 20 40 WEY 49 74 45 76 / 20 30 30 30 DLN 55 82 53 83 / 10 20 30 20 HVR 53 92 60 94 / 0 0 0 20 LWT 55 84 58 83 / 0 0 10 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls |