Weather Service Report


853 
FXUS66 KLOX 231748
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
948 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...23/810 AM.

Conditions will be dry and locally breezy with afternoon 
temperatures in the 80s in many locations for much of the week. 
Patchy overnight and morning fog is possible through Tuesday 
morning. There is a slight chance of showers by late next Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-TUE)...23/820 AM.

Overall, a much quieter morning across the area this morning.
Lingering low level moisture is still producing some clouds this
morning, especially across San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara
counties. With no inversion in place, the stratocu clouds should
dissipate across most areas this afternoon, although would not be
surprised to see partly cloudy skies in some areas. Otherwise,
today should be a warmer day for all areas with more sunshine 
and upper level ridge building overhead. 

Quick look at initial 12Z model data indicates no major changes to
previous forecast thinking. Through Tuesday, upper level ridge
will build over the area while strong surface high pressure builds
into the Great Basin. So, main focus in the short term will be
offshore winds. For tonight/Monday, northerly pressure gradients
increase which will generate some northerly winds in the usual
spots (Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor). At this time, do not
expect widespread advisory level north winds, but will look at 
that possibility with full 12Z model suite. With the northerly
flow tonight, there will likely be some clouds across interior
sections of SLO/SBA counties while a potential eddy generates some
clouds across Ventura/LA coasts. For Monday night and Tuesday, the
flow will shift from the north to the northeast with a decent
chance of advisory level northeast winds across Ventura/LA
counties. Additionally, the northeast flow will keep all areas
mostly clear and bring a noticeable warming trend to the area.

Current forecast has good handle on the immediate short term. So,
no significant updates are planned at this time.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/320 AM.

Not much change on Wednesday except the offshore flow will be a
little weaker and there will likely be no need any wind
advisories. There will be another couple of degrees of warming
under sunny skies.

Thursday will be the warmest day as the ridge peaks in strength.
Max temps across the csts and vlys will almost all be in the upper
70s to mid 80s or 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

The ridge breaks down some on Friday and some mid and high level
clouds will scoot overhead. Max temps will drop a few degrees from
Thursdays readings but will still be much above normal.

The ridge will be displaced by a weak trof on Saturday. The trof
will bring a grip of mid and high level clouds along with it. 
More importantly it will flip the offshore flow to weak onshore. 
The combination of onshore trends, lower hgts and cloud cover will
drop max temps 4 to 8 and maybe even 10 degrees from Friday's 
temps.

Long range mdls and ensemble forecast are indicating a chc of
light rain sometime either Sunday or Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1748Z.

At 1705Z at KLAX, there was a moist layer up to around 2400 feet.

Low-to-moderate confidence in the current forecast. MVFR
conditions are likely to clear out for terminals north of Point 
Conception in a couple of hours. There is a chance of VFR/MVFR 
conditions at terminals south of Point Conception through 20Z, or 
even as late as 00z. There is a 30 prcent chance of MVFR 
conditions at Los Angeles County coastal terminals and terminals 
north of Point Conception after 03Z. 

KLAX...There is a 50 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
20Z. There is a slightly better chance of VFR conditions with 
ceilings at or below 5000 feet through 20Z. VFR conditions with
any ceilings above 6000 feet are expected after 20Z. There is a 
30 percent chance of MVFR conditions after 03Z. Any east winds 
will likely remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...There is a 40 percent chance of MVFR conditions through
20Z. There is a slightly better chance of VFR conditions with 
ceilings at or below 5000 feet through 20Z. VFR conditions with
any ceilings above 6000 feet are expected after 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...23/819 AM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate confidence in the current 
forecast. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level NW winds will likely 
continue through Monday night. There is a 50 percent chance of SCA
level gusts at times around Point Conception Tuesday. There is 
also a 60 percent chance of gale force winds at times this 
afternoon and tonight. Winds should diminish and seas should 
subside below SCA levels Wednesday and Thursday.

For the inner waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in 
the current forecast. There is a 60 percent chance of SCA level 
winds at times this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds and 
seas are forecast to remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate
confidence in the current forecast. SCA level winds will likely
linger through this evening across western portions of the Santa 
Barbara Channel. Otherwise, winds and seas are forecast to remain 
below SCA levels through Thursday. There is a 30 percent chance of
SCA level NE wind gusts at times nearshore from Point Mugu to 
Santa Monica late Monday night and Tuesday morning.

&&

.BEACHES...23/826 AM.

A large northwest swell has moved into the coastal waters with
the potential to bring surf up to or just over 10 feet, so a high
surf advisory remains in effect through Tuesday morning.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Tuesday for zones
      34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 1 PM this afternoon to 9
      PM PST this evening for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST this evening
      for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
      Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (TUE-SAT).

There is a chance of gusty northeast winds Tuesday through 
Wednesday.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/Stewart
AVIATION...Sweet/Hall
MARINE...Sweet/Hall
BEACHES...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...Kj

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