Weather Service Report


696 
FXUS65 KLKN 202147
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
247 PM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018


.SYNOPSIS...Moisture expands northward with scattered showers and
thunderstorms over central Nevada, and isolated thunderstorms
across the north. Temperatures will not be as hot over the
weekend.  

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.

Demarcation line between hot and dry to storms is along a line 
from Gabbs to Wendover where the thunder threat diminishes quickly
north of this line. This line may creep slightly northward each 
day as the combo of offshore spinning low west of SoCal and 
Pacific Northwest trough helps nudge monsoonal moisture northward.
Diurnally driven storms continue to focus over the high terrain 
of central NV each day. Subtropical high and its extensive hot air
mass shifts to Texas, meaning it will be not as hot over Nevada 
this weekend. Increased cloud cover will be a contributing factor 
in slightly cooler daytime heat, but still remaining above normal 
with mild nights.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Friday.

Expansive subtropical high returns to the swrn Conus, keeping
temps above normal for Nevada. Moisture continues to circulate
around the high core. Spinning upper low west of the California
coast retrogrades, shifting the steering flow from a southerly
component to a southwest flow during the latter periods of the
long term. Monsoonal flow weakens in this scenario with dry
weather persisting across northwest NV. Daily thunderstorms
continue to form over central NV, but will generally be isolated 
coverage for much of the area south of US50 and along US93.
The hot July continues for the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions all stations through the TAF period. 
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop
through early evening in the vicinity of KTPH and KELY. Once 
again, some storms could produce brief heavy downpours and locally
strong outflow winds of up to around 40 KTS. Very low chance of 
TS with outflow winds could reach the KEKO this evening, but not 
enough confidence to include in TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...The best thunderstorm coverage continues to be
across the central part of the state, or zones 455 and 457. Over
the weekend, the thunder coverage will expand northward to include
northeast NV or zones 469 and 470. Many storms will generate some
rainfall, especially over zones 454, 455, and 457, but a mixture
of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected farther north.  

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

88/88/90/88

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu