Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KLKN 192141

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
241 PM PDT Mon Mar 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather will persist through early Tuesday 
morning. Then a Pacific storm system will begin to affect the
state. This system will bring a lot of rain to central Nevada and
strong, gusty winds to most areas by Thursday. A brief break in 
the active weather pattern is expected late Friday before another
disturbance brings more precipitaion to northern Nevada Saturday.


.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Its been a quiet day with
temperatures rising above 40 degrees widespread. Only a few wispy
clouds moved through a dampened ridge of high pressure. The calm
before the storm I suppose. The next storm is coming more into
focus and will bring some strong winds, spiking temperatures with
valley rain, and mountain snow. Models seemed to have delayed the
timing a bit and are showing more of a splitting system with a
precipitation emphasis now on northeast Nye and White Pine 

Tonight through Tuesday. This period will be mainly dry. Models 
remain consistent that low-amplitude ridging will be persistent. 
There is a small possibility that a few showers will develop near
the Idaho/Oregon borders Tuesday as a relatively moist flow 
crests the low-profile ridge. Its also possible to get some 
showers creeping into western Humboldt County during the day 
Tuesday...again small chances. Low temperatures will generally be
in the 20s tonight. High temperatures will rise into the 50s in
many spots.

Tuesday night through Wednesday. A deepening upper level low
pressure area off the coast of British Columbia will extend a
strong trough axis along the California coast. This will help pull
in a copious amount of moisture. During this time frame, Nevada
will be mostly in the shadow of the Sierras as a 140-150kt jet
structure moves over northern California. Chances for
precipitation will be increasing with an emphasis on northern
Nevada where the mean upper level jet flow will be. Snow levels 
will begin to rise with the strong southwesterly flow aloft. By 
Wednesday afternoon, snow levels are expected to be above all 
highway summits within the LKN CWFA. So, the main concern at this 
juncture will be the wind gusts over western zones late Wednesday.
This is where the models have changed since the last run. Guidance
has slowed the system down a bit and winds no longer seem to be a
widespread concern. Low temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s. 
High temperatures will reach 60 degrees in many spots.

Wednesday night through Thursday. The low pressure trough axis
will swing inland. The strong upper level jet flow will pivot
to north/south over California then slide across Nevada laterally
and split. Winds will be widespread gusty in the 40s, beginning as
early as midnight Wednesday night, followed by most other areas
during the day Thursday. Elko County will see winds develop later
in the day. The split will likely cause the heaviest precipitation
to fall over northeast Nye and White Pine Counties. Valleys will
receive the precipitation as rain through Thursday and totals
could exceed an inch and a half in some spots with mountain tops
accumulating more than a foot of snow. Convection will be induced
in the area between the right rear quad of the northern split of 
the jet core and the left front quad of the southern branch. This 
is unequivocally thunderstorm potential for all well as
flash flood potential. At the very least expect muddy conditions 
where substantial rainfall does occur since it will be combining 
with snowmelt from higher elevations. Low temperatures will range 
from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. High temperatures will range from
the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Monday. 

Precipitation is ongoing at the start of the long term period and
then the main belt of moisture moves off to the east on Friday.
Models continue the trend of delaying the colder air at the end 
of the system and it looks like Friday's showers will be a mixed 
bag of rain, rain mixed with snow, and snow. Showers should be 
decreasing greatly by then so any accumulations would be light and
confined to mainly grassy areas. 

The winds will be decreasing through the nighttime hours on 
Thursday night, though they will be increasing again on Friday
afternoon as the next system starts moving in right on the heels 
of the first system. Models are now in pretty good agreement that 
this system will begin to bring precipitation into western Nevada 
on Friday night. Since there will already be a colder air mass in 
place, snow levels will be down to the valley floors from the 
start. Models are trending more towards this affecting northern 
Nevada and should be fairly quick moving, especially compared to
the last couple of systems. It will for the most part have moved 
east by Sunday morning. This doesn't have the Pacific moisture 
tap that the previous storm did and so snow accumulations will be 
limited, especially Saturday, being its during the day in late 

This will be followed by a cool northwest flow through 
Monday with temperatures below normal.


.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours all 
stations. Rain begins moving into Nevada Tuesday night from the





Return to Home page

Western Regional Climate Center,