Weather Service Report


528 
FXUS65 KLKN 280943
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
243 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF A CANADIAN LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS 
AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR 
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MORE 
COMFORTABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, DRY AND HOTTER 
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING UP TO THE 4TH OF 
JULY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TAIL END OF BROAD TROF ASSOCIATED 
WITH STRONG UPPER LOW IN ALBERTA CANADA WILL BRUSH NEVADA TODAY 
PRODUCING GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING 
ISOLATED MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS (PW VALUES GREATER THAN 0.50 BUT
LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE
IN ELKO COUNTY NORTH OF I-80, UP AROUND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS 
AREA AND JACK POT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED THOUGH 
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (CAPES OF AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG AND LIS OF
-1 TO -2) WILL EXIST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
TO TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 
MPH DURING PEAK HEATING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY 
MAINLY IN THE 80S THOUGH LOWER 90S WILL STILL HOLD FARTHER SOUTH 
IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AS CANADIAN UPPER LOW DIGS 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WEAK 
UPPER RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE NEVADA WITH 
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLY 
COOL IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON 
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S FAR NORTH, 80S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS, AND 
LOWER 90S FARTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday

Weak northwest flow in place at the start of the long term with
Pacific ridge axis just to the west and a trof digging into the 
central conus. The ridge axis shifts over Nevada on Friday,
raising temperatures a bit.

Beginning Saturday, models drop out of sync some with the GFS 
cutting off from the main flow in California a weak upper low and
the EC bringing a shortwave through Nevada. Neither scenario 
looks to have enough moisture present so dry weather looks to stay
in place.

Further model divergence occurs over the weekend with the EC
building the ridge over the west and the GFS beginning to dig a
trof off of the coast. What the models do agree on is that
temperatures will be hot whether from the EC higher heights or 
the GFS southwest flow with most valleys well into the 90's.

If a trof does in fact suppress the ridge, there could be a 
frontal passage on July 4th, but forecast confidence is very low 
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR cigs and ceilings expected through Wednesday. West
to Northwest winds will gust to around 30 mph all terminals on
Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a low probability for 
an isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of KEKO Wednesday 
afternoon/evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER....FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT 
FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT THIS WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW 
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 454...455...457... AND 
470. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING PEAK 
HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY. 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5 PERCENT IN NORTHERN 
NYE COUNTY TO AROUND 15 PERCENT IN THE NORTHEAST. A FEW, ISOLATED 
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH WINDS 
REMAINING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND 
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this 
evening for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko 
County-Northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of 
Highway 50-White Pine County.

&&

$$

95/98/98/95

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu