528 FXUS65 KLKN 280943 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 243 AM PDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .SYNOPSIS...NEVADA WILL BE ON THE TAIL END OF A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY WHICH WILL CAUSE GUSTY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND LEADING UP TO THE 4TH OF JULY AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 90S. && .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TAIL END OF BROAD TROF ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW IN ALBERTA CANADA WILL BRUSH NEVADA TODAY PRODUCING GUSTY WEST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TRIGGERING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS (PW VALUES GREATER THAN 0.50 BUT LESS THAN 0.75 INCHES) ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN ELKO COUNTY NORTH OF I-80, UP AROUND THE JARBIDGE WILDERNESS AREA AND JACK POT. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS RATHER LIMITED THOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (CAPES OF AROUND 500 TO 600 J/KG AND LIS OF -1 TO -2) WILL EXIST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO TOUCH OFF A FEW STORMS. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER TODAY MAINLY IN THE 80S THOUGH LOWER 90S WILL STILL HOLD FARTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. AS CANADIAN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE NEVADA WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE COMFORTABLY COOL IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S FAR NORTH, 80S MOST OTHER LOCATIONS, AND LOWER 90S FARTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. .LONG TERM...Thursday night through Tuesday Weak northwest flow in place at the start of the long term with Pacific ridge axis just to the west and a trof digging into the central conus. The ridge axis shifts over Nevada on Friday, raising temperatures a bit. Beginning Saturday, models drop out of sync some with the GFS cutting off from the main flow in California a weak upper low and the EC bringing a shortwave through Nevada. Neither scenario looks to have enough moisture present so dry weather looks to stay in place. Further model divergence occurs over the weekend with the EC building the ridge over the west and the GFS beginning to dig a trof off of the coast. What the models do agree on is that temperatures will be hot whether from the EC higher heights or the GFS southwest flow with most valleys well into the 90's. If a trof does in fact suppress the ridge, there could be a frontal passage on July 4th, but forecast confidence is very low at this time. && .AVIATION...VFR cigs and ceilings expected through Wednesday. West to Northwest winds will gust to around 30 mph all terminals on Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a low probability for an isolated thunderstorm in the vicinity of KEKO Wednesday afternoon/evening. && .FIRE WEATHER....FIRE WEATHER... A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM PDT THIS WEDNESDAY FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 454...455...457... AND 470. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH LIKELY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE FROM 5 PERCENT IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY TO AROUND 15 PERCENT IN THE NORTHEAST. A FEW, ISOLATED MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW CRITICAL VALUES AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Central Lander and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko County-Northern Nye County/Lander and Eureka Counties South of Highway 50-White Pine County. && $$ 95/98/98/95 |