Weather Service Report


719 
FXUS66 KMFR 091039
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
339 AM PDT Wed Jul 9 2025

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Overview:

Impacts revolve around the small thunderstorm potential later this 
afternoon for mainly Klamath and Lake counties as well as the 
heat risk starting this weekend when westside valleys could see 
triple digits through early next week. After today, the 
thunderstorm and rain chances diminish significantly with no 
reasonable chances through the next seven days and likely beyond 
that through at least middle of the month. There is a Red Flag 
warning out to account for the lightning over dry fuels for 
eastside areas this afternoon and early evening. 

Further Details:

A shortwave trough will continue to pass over the forecast area 
today leading to larger scale ascent for eastside areas this 
afternoon with MUCPAE values approaching 800 J/kg in some instances. 
This coupled with convective temperatures being reached will lead to 
a chance (~20%) for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early 
evening before chances diminish near/after sunset. Not expecting 
severe weather, but a couple storms could produce gusty/strong wind 
gusts as DCAPE values are progged to be around 1000-1200 J/kg. With 
the passage of the trough, there could be some isolated gusty winds 
this afternoon around 30 mph for eastside areas where deep mixing 
will be present. 

After today, a mostly zonal flow pattern aloft will be evident with 
500mb heights generally rising this weekend through early next week. 
This will likely lead to above normal temperatures and hot 
conditions for some of our westside valleys where triple digits will 
be possible. These conditions will be about 10 degrees above normal, 
but will likely fall short of any records. We will need to consider 
a potential heat advisory starting on Saturday. Additionally, low 
temperatures may only drop to the low to mid 60s overnight, so we 
wont see much relief overnight during this stretch of warm weather. 
To put things into perspective, the probability for Medford to reach 
at least 100 degrees is about 65%-75% each day Saturday through 
Tuesday. 

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

LIFR conditions have returned to the coast and over the coastal 
waters and will persist into Wednesday morning. As low pressure 
moves inland late tonight into early Wednesday, the marine layer 
will deepen and push into portions of the Umpqua Basin. Stratus 
looks more likely to reach Roseburg tonight, with MVFR conditions 
likely. These lower conditions will improve later Wednesday 
morning with LIFR/IFR conditions along the coast improving to 
IFR/MVFR, and VFR returning to the Umpqua Basin. Ceilings will 
likely persist into the afternoon hours and beyond for the coast.

Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Areas 
of smoke in the vicinity of wildfires could lower visibilities to 
MVFR at times. Gusty winds return to the area Wednesday afternoon 
and another round of thunderstorms is expected across central 
Klamath/Lake Counties. 

/BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 330 AM PDT Wednesday, July 9, 2025...The 
thermal trough pattern will be disrupted today as an upper level 
trough passes through the region. This will result in relatively 
calm conditions, along with areas of reduced visibilities due to 
marine layer fog/stratus. The thermal trough redevelops tonight 
into Thursday, and is likely to persist through the weekend. Gusty
north winds will strengthen on Thursday, resulting in the return 
of steep wind-driven seas south of Cape Blanco by Thursday 
morning. Steep seas will likely expand north of Cape Blanco late 
Thursday into Friday, with very steep seas and possible gales 
south of Cape Blanco over the weekend.

&&

FIRE WEATHER...

Today, a low will move inland across northern California. This 
will maintain a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms across 
eastern portions of the forecast area, including eastern Klamath, 
Lake, and northern Modoc counties. Models are continuing to 
highlight eastern Klamath and Lake counties as well as areas to 
the east as having the best chance (15-20%) for thunderstorms. 
Additionally, with elevated bases and relatively low precipitable 
water values, these storms may be on the dry side. We have 
upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for eastern 
portion of FWZ 624 and FWZ 625 (2-9 pm PDT) for abundant lightning
on dry fuels. The trough axis pushes east of the area fairly 
quickly Wednesday evening and convection is expected to diminish 
after 9pm. 

Following the trough passage, drier westerly flow aloft moves in 
Wednesday night and the thunder risk ends. Expect slight cooling 
Wed/Thu over inland areas, but northeast winds provide warmer 
weather to the south coast by Thursday. A return of hotter weather 
is expected Friday into the weekend with fairly typical late-day 
summertime breezes, but also dry afternoon humidity. Offshore 
northeast flow over the coastal mountains and Siskiyou mountains may 
result in moderate to locally poor RH recovery at night.

-CC/Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this 
     evening for ORZ624-625. 

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT 
     Thursday for PZZ356-376. 

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu