Weather Service Report


657 
FXUS65 KMSO 262039
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
239 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

...STRONG STORMS LIKELY THIS EVENING, PRODUCING STRONG WINDS,
HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

.DISCUSSION...A very hot and dry day today will transition to a
convectively active evening for north central Idaho and western
Montana. Severe storms are already firing off across northeast 
Oregon, and these storms will cross into central Idaho later this
afternoon, continuing through the evening as they work their way 
eastward into Montana. 

***The greatest thunderstorm threat for central Idaho regarding
 thunderstorms will be strong outflow winds in excess of 40+ mph
 and hail (in addition to lightning/brief heavy downpours). The
 strongest storms will likely occur between the hours of 4pm-8pm
 PDT.***

For western Montana, a band of weak showers is currently crossing
NW Montana at this hour (2:30 pm MDT), and should produce nothing
more than a light passing shower. Warm and dry conditions will 
persist across most of western MT until the thunderstorms form 
later this evening, likely after 6 pm MDT.

***The greatest thunderstorm threat for western Montana will be 
 strong outflow winds in excess of 40+ mph, abundant lightning, 
 and brief heavy downpours. Small hail may also be possible (but 
 will be a greater threat for ID locations). The strongest storms 
 are likely to occur between 7pm-10pm MDT.*** 

Rain showers are possible during the AM hours Tuesday for the 
Northern Rockies, as the system that caused thunderstorms 
overnight slowly progresses east. The afternoon will be breezy in 
the wake of the exiting system, with cooler air and temperatures 
10 or so degrees cooler than Monday, with highs near seasonal 
averages.

Wednesday will also be breezy, as the region remains under 
northwest flow aloft. Seasonal temperatures continue throughout 
the week, with Thursday and Friday bringing a slight chance for 
additional afternoon showers along the Continental Divide. Valleys
not along the Continental Divide look to remain dry into the 
weekend.

Models hint at a shortwave trough moving through Saturday, which
would bring the potential for enhanced rain chances, but
confidence is low at this point, given differing model solutions
and a lack of consistency with previous runs. Regardless, this
time period will be watched closely given the upcoming holiday
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Strong thunderstorms will occur tonight for all
terminals, impacting KGIC around 26/2300Z, KMSO by 27/0300Z and 
both KGPI and KBTM around 27/0500Z and thereafter. Gusty erratic 
outflow winds will be the dominant aviation threat, along with 
abundant lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours which 
could quickly reduce visibility. Showers and embedded thunder 
should continue overnight through Tuesday morning, with conditions
remaining showery but improving overall after 27/2200Z.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...None.
&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu