084 FXAK69 PAFG 201501 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 701 AM AKDT Sat Oct 20 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Aloft... The long wave pattern consists of a trough over the Bering Sea and Western Alaska and a ridge over NW Canada and eastern Alaska will persist through the middle of next week. Several strong short waves trough will make their way from the Gulf of Alaska north over the Interior through the middle of next week. There will be periods of rain, snow and windy condition with each short wave. Northern Alaska will remain much warmer than normal through the middle of next week in this pattern. Surface... A ridge of high pressure north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will persist through Sun. This will cause stratus and fop/flurries to continue along the Arctic Coast into Sun. A low pressure trough along the West Coast of Alaska will dissipate Sun. Isolated rain showers along and west of this trough will continue into tonight as will north winds 20-25 kt west of the trough. A 996 mb low over the southeast Interior of Alaska will move to the Eastern North Slope of Alaska by Sun and weaken. Rain and snow along this system over the Eastern Interior will spread north with the low today. We have had up to 4 inches of snow above 2000 feet so far, but little accumulation below 1000 feet. Expect another 1 inch accumulation today before tapering off this afternoon. This system will cause east widns to increase over the Eastern North Slope late tonight and Sun. A strong low in the southern Gulf of Alaska will move over Bristol Bay Sun and over the Kuskokwim Delta by Mon. This will bring moderate chinook winds to the Alaska Range late tonight into Sun evening. This will also spread more rain and snow to the Western and Northern Interior Sun into Mon along with NE winds 15-25 kt. The southeast Interior will remain mainly in the downslope shadow of the Alaska Range tonight through Sun night. && .DISCUSSION... Models initialize well aloft, and at the surface at 06Z. Slight differences in precipitation amounts, but well will follow GFS for precipitation amounts and location. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory for AKZ226. Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ240-PKZ245. && $$ JB OCT 18 |