098
FXUS66 KOTX 202316
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
416 PM PDT Fri Jul 20 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will cool slightly with below average readings by
tomorrow. The region will remain dry with locally breezy westerly
winds over central Washington through this evening. Dry weather
will persist into next week, with another warming trend starting
Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday Night: Upper level low pressure system is
moving into southern Alberta this afternoon. There is enough
moisture that we have had some cumulus development across the
mountains along the US/Canadian border. But that is about all we
will see with this trough and weak cold front passage this
evening. No precipitation is expected. The winds across central WA
and northern WA will shift from a southwesterly or west direction
to a more northerly direction with the passage of the cold front
sometime btwn 1700-2300 (depending on where you are). The rest of
the region will continue to see southerly winds. Gusts this
evening could get as high as 25 or 30 mph (some east slope valleys
into the Waterville Plateau and western Basin), but most
locations will see 20 mph or less (the Okanogan Valley, eastern
Basin). ...With even less winds across NE WA, the Palouse and into
ID. Saturday as the trough keeps moving east, our flow will
become more northerly. North winds down the Okanogan are expected.
They will increase during the overnight hours and remain elevated
through most of the day. The winds will be below red flag
criteria, and so no highlights will be issued. Will continue the
current red flag warning through 9pm across the central part of
the state.
Enjoy these cooler temperatures today and tomorrow (about 3 to 5
degrees below average). High temps in the upper 70s to mid 80s
will feel great! Our overnight lows will be near or slightly
below average or in the mid 50s to around 60. If you are across
portions of NE WA and the N ID Panhandle, some of the valleys
could see lows in the 40s.
Smoke was quite obvious this morning across most valley locations.
Expect smoke to settle back down into the valleys tonight, with
the thickest smoke closest to the fires in central WA. There will
be patchy smoke off and on through the weekend. Expect the
smokiest conditions during the morning hours and then improving
through the afternoon. As the winds become more northerly we
should stop being as impacted by the fires in the central part of
the state, but then need to worry about the fires to our north in
Canada. /Nisbet
Sunday and Monday: Sunday the upper low continues its exit to the
east putting us under dry zonal flow. The only caveat would be a
weak disturbance rotating around the trough which would move
through the northern forecast area late Sunday. Not expecting any
precip out of it, though. If anything some sprinkles could
materialize over the extreme northern Panhandle but the NAM, GFS,
and Canadian all agree on a dry forecast while the latest run of
the EC finally came into line keeping POPs north of the border.
The northerly winds through the Okanogan Valley will be on the
decrease through the day with warming temperatures into the 80s
and low 90s. Monday the dry zonal flow continues and temps
increase several degrees into the mid to upper 90s in the deep
basin.
Tuesday through Friday: Heights will be on the rise during the
period as high pressure slowly builds into the region. This means
the hot temperatures (above average for late July) are here to
stay. We'll see 90s and even approaching 100 in the deep basin
each day. There is, however, considerable model disagreement with
an interrupting shortwave that according to the EC and GFS will
be sliding down the continental divide around late Wed/Thurs. The
question is with exact timing and whether it will bring any rain
with it. Leaning toward the GFS which would bring a slight chance
of showers to the northern panhandle late Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday the ridge begins to build back in, though just how quickly
and how amplified it will be will have to be honed in as we get
closer. /bw
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Dry, breezy west/southwest winds continue through the
evening and will gradually taper off overnight. Areas of smoke
and haze are possible over many of the TAF sites from regional
fires, but conditions should remain VFR. Winds will increase by
Saturday afternoon with local gusts. /rfox.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 54 80 56 83 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d'Alene 49 79 51 83 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 49 77 50 83 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 58 87 57 90 60 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 47 81 51 86 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 45 78 49 81 51 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 50 76 49 80 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 53 87 56 90 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 57 85 60 89 63 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 52 85 57 89 60 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Washington
Central Cascade Valleys (Zone 677)-East Washington Northern
Columbia Basin (Zone 673)-East Washington South Central
Cascade Valleys (Zone 676).
&&
$$
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