921 FXUS66 KOTX 170528 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1028 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and seasonably warm temperatures can be expected this week. Wildfire smoke will linger over north central Washington to north Idaho through Thursday. Locally breezy conditions will be possible late today and again on late Friday with the passage of a pair of weak frontal systems. The dry and warm spell will continue through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday: Winds will be gusty through the Cascade gaps this evening. Expect wind gusts to between 25-30 mph out of the Wenatchee River Valley and Entiat River Valley. These winds will spread out on the Waterville Plateau but will gradually weaken as they spread out into the basin. Similar winds can be expected out ahead of another frontal passage on Friday. Temperatures will remain fairly steady with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Although, the eastern half of the forecast area will see a bump up of a few degrees on Friday ahead of the next front. /SVH Friday night through Wednesday...Forecast confidence is fairly high for a stretch of dry...above average temperatures but not overly hot...and occasionally breezy conditions over the region as a rather progressive flow regime continues through the weekend and into early next week. Friday evening will feature a dry cold front promoting breezy conditions especially near the Cascades as a short wave trough sweeps through British Columbia...keeping any precipitation north of the border. A ridge will build offshore on Saturday and move inland over the forecast area late Sunday with the axis crossing the region on Monday...a good omen for relatively clear skies or only thin cirrus cover for the eclipse over eastern Washington and north Idaho. Temperatures will rise during these days...topping out 5 to 7 degrees above normal by Tuesday. By wednesday things get a bit less certain...with both the GFS and EC models indicating a rather deep offshore trough or closed low promoting southerly flow over the region ahead of it...probably meaning another warm day on Wednesday...but possibly bringing a threat of thunderstorms at least to the mountains. The main public impact element of the forecast will be the potential for the return of smoke from regional fires at times during the next week. The best bet for appreciable/noticeable smoke intrusion will be over the northern tier zones...with possibly some intrusion into the northern and western basin Saturday and Sunday as northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of the shortwave provides a favorable trajectory. This is a very uncertain forecast element at this time. /Fugazzi && .FIRE WEATHER... A weak cold front will produce gusty winds through the Cascade gaps this afternoon and evening. Winds are expected to be sustained at 15 to 25 mph and then gradually weaken through the overnight hours. The good news is that the marine layer is fairly deep to near 5000 feet MSL. This will result in RHs recovering quickly in the evening as the cooler marine air filters through the Cascade gaps. Friday will also require close monitoring. The atmosphere will becoming increasingly more unstable ahead of a cold front. High haines of 5 is expected for the morning in combination with breezy conditions for the afternoon hours. Winds again be gusty through the Cascade gaps, but will also be breezy across the exposed areas of the Columbia Basin and southern/western aspects and ridge tops. /SVH && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Gusty northwest winds currently impacting Central WA will slowly wane the next few hours and wind speeds will generally be 10kts or less. A new wildfire upstream of Moses Lake will bring a threat for vis restrictions via smoke...otherwise flat high pressure will prevail over the region with VFR conditons at all TAF sites. Smoke will be more prevalent in the northern valley and could lead to local restrictions around Omak, Colville, and Winthrop. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 58 84 59 86 58 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 54 83 55 86 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 52 82 53 85 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 89 60 93 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 51 87 52 87 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 48 82 48 84 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 52 80 52 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 55 88 55 91 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 63 88 63 89 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Omak 60 91 59 91 59 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$ |