881 FXHW60 PHFO 030134 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 334 PM HST Wed Jul 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through the week, then strengthen to breezy to locally windy by early next week. Conditions remain mostly dry, with clouds and showers focused over mainly windward and mauka areas during the overnight and early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Moderate to locally breezy trades have developed across the state this afternoon as high pressure builds far northeast of the area. Mostly dry conditions continue with pockets of clouds and showers moving into windward and mauka areas at times. An incoming batch of moisture will impact windward Big Island and Maui this evening, but rainfall amounts should remain light. Otherwise, expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and passing showers under stable conditions. Trades will strengthen further over the weekend, becoming breezy to locally windy by early next week as high pressure continues to build north of the islands and a drier airmass moves into the area. The combination of drier conditions with stronger trades could bring elevated fire weather concerns. While this is still several days out, and confidence remains low at the moment, conditions will be monitored leading up to the weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION... High pressure to the north will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in place through the next several days with strengthening expected tomorrow through the weekend as the high pressure strengthens. Trade wind showers should follow a diurnal trend of wetter at night and drier during the day, and be mostly confined to windward and mountain areas. A few of these showers could occasionally spill over to leeward areas, and any showers especially in the night time or early morning could have MVFR conditions. Overall VFR conditions are expected. No AIRMETs are currently in place however windward and mountain areas could receive more MVFR conditions tonight or early tomorrow morning, and there is good a chance of AIRMET Tango tomorrow for low level turbulence as the trade winds strengthen. && .MARINE... A weak trough to the northwest of the state will continue to maintain gentle to locally fresh easterly trade winds across the state through Thursday as it drifts slowly westward. High pressure far north of the state will strengthen Friday into the weekend with fresh to locally strong trade winds expected. Winds are expected to further strengthen early next week with widespread strong trade winds possible. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) could return as early as Thursday morning or afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. The current south swell will slowly decline over the next couple of days. Surf heights should still hold near the summer time average (5 feet) till around Thursday before dropping Friday into the weekend. Tiny, long-period south swell energy will hold into next week, with below average surf expected. Along east facing shores, surf will continue to remain smaller than average due to the lack of strong trades. An increase of rough and choppy surf is expected this weekend into next week as the trade winds strengthen. No significant swells are expected through next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Ahue AVIATION...Tsamous MARINE...TS |