Weather Service Report


454 
FXUS65 KPSR 231713
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1013 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Shower activity will continue to dwindle through the morning
hours. In the wake of the storm, below normal temperatures are 
expected Sunday along with isolated showers across the higher 
terrain north and east of Phoenix. A return to near normal 
temperatures is likely early next week, followed by a warming 
trend later in the week as high pressure builds across the 
intermountain West. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest objective analysis shows the center of an upper low positioned
just to our north with a trough axis slicing through western Maricopa
County. This system will continue eastward through the day and 
eventually exiting Arizona later today. 

Showers have persisted through 330AM (MST) with radar trends
remaining active for a few more hours over east of Phoenix. Even 
though fast flow aloft has kept most showers from producing 
locally high rainfall rates, 0.50-0.75" of rain has fallen over 
an area stretching from Roosevelt Lake south towards Florence. A 
flood threat may continue for some areas, including Tonto Creek 
and the Superstition Mountains, as runoff continues to flow.

Showers activity will decrease through morning with most of the 
lower desert remaining dry. Latest guidance keeps central Arizona 
temperatures below seasonal normals today in the mid 60s while 
areas farther west will reach the mid and upper 70s. Ensemble 
guidance continues to show strong ridging over the western US this
week allowing daytime highs to reach the upper 70s/low 80s over 
much of the forecast area by the end of the week. 

&&

AVIATION...Updated at 1715Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: 

Typical diurnal wind patterns will take hold this afternoon with
speeds peaking around 8-12 kts, then becoming very light to calm 
Sunday night as winds shift back towards the east. BKN cloud bases
around 9-10 kft with SCT clouds around 5-6 kft are expected
through this evening, before a decrease in cloudiness occurs into
Monday morning. Isolated showers are possible in the afternoon, 
but should remain north and east of the metro.

With very light to calm winds and clear skies Monday morning,
there will be a potential for patchy fog development, but
confidence is too low to add mention in the TAF. 

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Mid-level clouds across the area should clear by the afternoon as
the upper disturbance exits. Winds will favor the west through the
TAF period at KIPL, with speeds around 6-10 kts. KBLH will favor 
the west to southwest through the morning then shift more towards 
the northwest in the afternoon with some gustiness. Both terminals
will experience light and variable winds Monday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
Conditions will be dry for the week with minimum humidities
falling into the 10-25% range for most of the week. Overnight RH
recoveries will also be meager. Wind directions will generally
follow local diurnal/terrain influences. Breezy conditions are 
possible each afternoon with the strongest winds, 20-25 mph, 
occurring Wednesday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... 
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Deems
AVIATION...Rogers/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Deems

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu