165 FXUS65 KPIH 282029 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 229 PM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017 .Tstms developing across the fcst area this aftn in response to a trof rotating around the back side of an upper low over MT. Some of these tstms will be capable of producing hail and gusty winds...especially east of I-15 where the instability is greatest. The tstms will settle down later this eve as the airmass stabilizes. By Thu...the upper low moves a little more to the east with isold tstms limited to near the Divide. By Fri...upper ridging takes over with dry and warmer conditions into Sat. A weak upper trof enters the Pac NW on Sat...which is expected to bring isold tstms Sat aftn and eve in the central mtns and near the Divide. The rest of the fcst period looks dry. Winds rather erratic this aftn with northeast winds expected to switch to the southwest and increase this aftn in the Snake River Plain. Will continue the lake wind advisory for the American Falls Res. Hedges && .AVIATION...Expect convective showers and thunderstorms into this evening in the vicinity of all aerodromes with more likelihood of impact to KPIH, KIDA, KDIJ and KSUN. Showers will dissipate this evening and return for another round tomorrow afternoon as another upper level trof swings thru east Idaho. DSH && .FIRE WEATHER...A low pressure trough will sweep through the region today along with an ill defined surface front and scattered thunderstorms for this evening. Localized areas of gusty winds are expected throughout SE Idaho this afternoon and early evening, however relative humidity levels have not dropped significantly so the Red Flag Warning for zone 425 (Shoshone area) has been cancelled. Temperatures bottom out Thursday and begin to warm through the weekend and early next week as a ridge of high pressure builds over the region. One passing system may bring a threat of thunderstorms and breezy conditions to SE Idaho Saturday afternoon/eve otherwise mostly dry conditions should prevail. DSH && .HYDROLOGY...Warm temperatures will continue to produce significant snowmelt through the end of the week. Temperatures will lower slightly through Thursday so river levels in most areas not directly impacted by reservoir releases will see a gradual decrease in river levels over the next few days. For those areas with remaining high elevation snow, which is the Central Mountains, Big Lost and the Tetons, they will see increase flows next week after a return of very warm temperatures this weekend into next week. DSH && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ021. && $$ |