956 FXUS65 KPIH 111949 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 149 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry through the weekend. - Weak systems Monday and Tuesday bring breezy winds and isolated thunderstorms mainly along the Divide. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Quiet dry pattern continues into the weekend. Upper ridge begins to rebound Saturday, allowing temperatures to nudge upwards slightly. Overall winds remain generally light, but briefly breezy Saturday afternoon across the Eastern Magic Valley. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Similar conditions continue into Sunday as upper ridge continues to strengthen. Models indicate presence of a VERY weak shortwave Sunday afternoon, which could allow for some afternoon build ups mainly over the central mountains. NAM develops weak precipitation for an isolated thunderstorm near Sun Valley, much where current build-ups are occurring. HiRes-FV3 also similar. More robust shortwave shifts east through Montana Monday into Tuesday. East Idaho on the dry side of this feature Monday, though winds are expected to become more gusty during the afternoon. This may have some implications for fire concerns. Breezy winds continue into Tuesday as the shortwave feature sags south toward East Idaho, allowing for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development mainly higher elevations by Tuesday. A few thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday along with slightly cooler temperatures. It is notable that there are some differences in the models with respect to the track and speed of this system, so there is an expectation of forecast fluctuations especially for Wednesday. For Thursday and beyond, ridge of high pressure returns, but there are some differences with respect to positioning of the upstream trough along or off the coast headed into the weekend. NBM maintains isolated showers/thunderstorms mainly along the Divide. Temperatures do rebound back into the 90s for most lower elevations for the end of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1030 AM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 High pressure is slowly building into the northern Rockies, but there is now some mid-level moisture expected, with some FEW-SCT decks in the 6000ft AGL to 10000ft AGL range. The clouds will mostly affect the four nothernmost TAFs and will clear from west to east starting in the early morning hours Sat. Wind will be driven by the slope- valley effect, but stay light at 12KT or less, with some airdromes having overnight wind that is light and variable. Do not expect the HZ to be a problem tomorrow morning, as it was for KIDA this previous morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025 As high pressure intensifies for the weekend, expect a gradual warming and drying. Afternoon humidity on Fri afternoon was actually somewhat high for the time of year, but should by Sun dry out to below 15 percent at most locations below 5500ft elevation in the valleys and highlands and 4500ft elevation in the central mountains. As long as the upper level ridge dominates, the wind is expected to be light--even the transport wind. The air mass will become more unstable from day to day over this weekend, but not to the point of thunderstorm activity. This starts to change Mon as a trough approaches from the north. On Mon, thunderstorms may occur in the ID-MT border region, then by Tue this low will be closer, creating more instability and a greater coverage of thunderstorms with likely only the Twin Falls District and the southern Sawtooth NF escaping the threat. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DMH LONG TERM...DMH AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick |