Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KPUB 160302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
902 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Issued at 902 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Cancelled the FFA for the Pikes Peak region, with the threat of
heavy rain likely diminished for the rest of night. FFA continues
for tomorrow afternoon for the newer burn areas across the Wet 
and Sangre de Cristo Mts. Looking at the 00Z run of the NAM, would
tend to believe its QPF is overdone, however, I have kept scattered
pops across the I-25 Corridor past midnight, with the area of showers
and associated lift currently translating south and east across 
northeastern Colorado. 


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

...Heavy rainfall expected with the potential for flash flooding 
greatest across the Pikes Peak region and newer burn scars in the 
southeast mountains...

Currently...radar indicates slow moving thunderstorms developing 
across the region.  A couple of stronger cells have developed over 
El Paso County and radar estimates of 1 to 3 inches have fallen near 
Ellicot.  Elsewhere, slow moving thunderstorms continue to develop 
and so far have missed burn scars.  It should be noted that if one 
of these storms moves over a burn scar, rain rates will be high and 
flash flooding possible through much of tonight.  At the surface, a 
cold front is currently dropping south to near Highway 50 across the 
Plains.  Ahead of this front, southeast flow and abundant moisture 
remain across the Plains, while northerly flow drops south behind 
the front.  This frontal boundary should provide the focus for 
additional thunderstorm development through this afternoon. 
Temperatures are warm ahead of the front with lower to mid 90s 
across the Plains.  

Through Tonight...the upper level high is currently sitting over 
Utah while an upper level shortwave trough moves east across Wyoming 
into Nebraska.  Energy trailing from the shortwave trough is 
currently sagging southward across Colorado and will provide the 
focus for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity for late this 
afternoon and tonight.  Various high-res model solutions put the 
primary focus over the Palmer Divide, south into the Pueblo area 
through this evening.  A couple of the model solutions actually keep 
showers and thunderstorms going through tonight into Monday morning. 
This will all depend on how quickly the upper shortwave moves off to 
the east.  Expect easterly moist upslope flow to develop by morning 
behind the front, which may also keep rain going along the I-25 
corridor.  Locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat, especially 
over the Pikes Peak region, Colorado Springs urban areas and fresh 
burn scars of the Eastern Mountains.  If one of these slow moving 
thunderstorms moves over a burn scar, flash flooding and debris 
flows will be possible.  In addition, lightning and wind gusts to 50 
mph will be possible.  Stronger storms over the Palmer Divide region 
will be capable of half inch hail through this evening. Temperatures 
will be mild overnight with mid 50s to lower 60s for lows.

Monday...the upper level high is forecast to remain nearly 
stationary over Utah while the departing shortwave continues to 
influence southern Colorado.  Flow at the surface will shift 
easterly to southeasterly by mid day, with abundant low level 
moisture continuing across the region.  Late morning and afternoon 
instability will once again lead to widespread showers and 
thunderstorms across the region.  The focus looks to shift south 
along the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, which includes several 
recent burn scars.  Flash flooding and debris flows will remain 
possible.  There is also the possibility of stronger storms out 
across the Eastern Plains during the afternoon where nickle size 
hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats.  Temperatures 
will be slightly cooler with highs in the 80s across the region. 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Center of upper level high pressure remains near the 4 corners on
Tue, with weak W-NW flow aloft across CO. Mid levels, especially
over the central mountains, begin to dry out Tue afternoon, while
low and mid level moisture lingers over srn and ern CO. Expect 
best coverage of convection Tue to be over the ern mountains and 
plains where moisture/instability is deepest/highest, and ern San
Juans could see fairly high tsra chances as well. Wrn ridge begins
to amplify slightly on Wed as short wave trough pushes into the
upper Midwest. Precipitable water values continue to decrease
across much of the region with mid level moist plume suppressed
south, so expect a generally drier/hotter day most locations Wed,
though residual moisture will likely fire some isolated/weak
storms over the mountains in the afternoon. Slightly deeper
moisture then spreads back across srn CO Thu/Fri as ridge begins
to drift back east, with high pressure center somewhere near the
TX Panhandle by late Fri evening. Should see a modest upturn in
convection over the mountains both days, and a few storms will
likely leak out onto the plains, especially if low level moisture
increase portrayed by the GFS occurs. Convective details get a
little fuzzy over the weekend with GFS/ECMWF slightly different in
their depiction of the upper ridge position and location of short
wave energy, though both would suggest at least a low grade 
monsoon tap will continue, with daily chances for tsra and temps 
at or slightly above seasonal averages. 


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018

Thunderstorms have started to develop across the region. Expect 
storms to impact all three terminals this afternoon and evening.
Storms will be capable of producing erratic winds, small hail and 
heavy rainfall, especially at KCOS and KPUB. Timing will depend on a 
cold front, which has already shifted winds north with gusts to 23 
kts at KCOS, and will continue south into KPUB by 23z. Gusty winds 
will accompany the front as it arrives. Expect thunderstorms to 
produce reduced VIS and CIGS as they pass, with more rain showers 
expected well into the evening.  There is also a low probability of 
fog at KALS during the morning hours.  Mozley


Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for COZ072>075-




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