Weather Service Report


987 
FXUS65 KPUB 232036
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
136 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 133 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

Surface low seemed to have an extremely delayed intensification
and will intensify further east, which resulted in a busted
forecast for this event. Winter Weather Advisories over the I-25
corridor have been canceled.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 444 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

It is a complicated forecast for today.  An upper level low will be 
over the Four Corners region early this morning and will track 
eastward across southern CO and northern NM thru the day, and will 
then move east of CO this evening, along the OK and KS border.

Snow has already been occuring in the mtns and high valleys tonight, 
and as this system moves eastward, precip will spread eastward 
across the area as well.  The NAM doesn't really have much in the 
way of precip occuring over eastern areas until late this afternoon, 
while the GFS and HRRR have more precip occurring earlier in the 
day.  Will base the forecast PoPs more on the GFS and HRRR.  By late 
morning it looks like the central mtns, Fremont, Custer, Teller, El 
Paso and Pueblo Counties should be seeing high chances for precip 
and QPF looks decent. Gusty northerly winds will be spreading south 
along the I-25 corridor in the late morning hours as well. At the 
same time, the southwest mtns should also still be seeing snow, but 
QPF is a little lower than areas farther north.  Then in the early 
and mid afternoon hours, precip will continue spreading eastward 
across the plains, as will the gusty north winds.  The RAP and the 
GFS have the area of higher QPF shifting over Crowley, western 
Kiowa, Otero and eastern Pueblo Counties, while the RAP shifts it to 
the southern I-25 corridor. 

In the evening, as the upper low starts to move away from the area, 
the precip chances will be decreasing from west to east.  There will 
still be high chances for precip over the eastern plains in the 
early evening, and it won't be until the late night hours that 
precip comes to an end across all of the area.

The snow amount forecast is difficult today for a couple reasons. 
One is that temps are going to be hard to forecast today and will 
make a huge difference as to whether precip will be in the form of 
snow, rain, or a combination.  A lot of areas over the plains should 
be too warm this afternoon for snow or there will be a mixture of 
rain and snow and there will not be accumulating snow. However, the 
southern I-25 corridor from south of Pueblo to Raton Pass should see 
some snow accumulations, as well as the northern two-thirds of El 
Paso County.  Snow accumulations should continue in the mtn areas 
this afternoon, with the Sangre de Cristo and Wet mtns and the Pikes 
Peak area likely seeing the highest accumulations. Another thing 
that complicates the QPF and snow amount forecast is the expected 
convective nature of the precip this afternoon which could lead to 
areas of heavier precip that are difficult to forecast.  Forecast 
models show enough instability today that there will be the 
potential for some thunder.

At this time I don't see a reason to make any changes to the ongoing 
winter weather highlights.  The winter weather advisory that is in 
effect for Pueblo County is mainly the far southwest portions of the 
county where snow accumulations will be possible.  Not sure that 
eastern Fremont County needs an advisory as accumulating snow and 
travel impact don't look likely at this time, but if temps end up 
being slightly cooler than the current forecast, then that could 
change.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 444 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

Initially, below seasonal late February temperatures in
combination with gusty winds and snow showers at times(favoring 
but not limited to the Central Mountains, northern El Paso county 
and sections of the far eastern Colorado plains) are anticipated 
over the CWA from Monday into Tuesday as passing relatively weak 
upper disturbances interact with northerly component surface 
surges. 

At this time, it appears that the Central Mountains have the 
potential of experiencing 1 to 4 inches of snow from Monday 
morning into Tuesday afternoon, with remaining southern Colorado 
locations expected to note nil to under 1 inch snow amounts during
this time-frame. 

Wednesday into Wednesday night should be a relatively dry period 
across the CWA, although the Central Mountains should note
increasing light snow activity, especially by Wednesday night. 

In addition, the coldest minimum temperatures of the longer term 
should be realized Wednesday morning, with many single digit 
temperature readings anticipated. 

Per recent PVA analysis, computer simulations, forecast model
soundings/etc. next upper disturbance in combination with another
northerly component surface surge is expected to produce another 
round of primarily light snow over southeastern Colorado plains 
locations Thursday night, with light snow also continuing over the
Central Mountains. In addition, below seasonal temperatures are 
expected to persist.

Then, transitory upper ridging is expected to provide southern 
Colorado with warmer and drier conditions from Friday into 
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1013 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

Convective snow and rain has formed over KCOS and is expected to
form over KPUB shortly. Since the precipitation is convective,
prevailing conditions are tough to pinpoint, but overall there
will be periods of MVFR and IFR during the afternoon. Snow chances
diminish shortly after sunset. VFR conditions are expected 
afterward. Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon for 
KCOS and KPUB. 

There will be showers in the vicinity of KALS, so if a shower
develops overhead, MVFR to IFR conditions are possible. VFR
conditions are expected through the night and morning. 


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ074-
075-077>080.

Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for COZ058-
060-061-063-068.

Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ072-
073-076.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKELLY
AVIATION...SKELLY

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu