987 FXUS65 KPUB 232036 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 136 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 .UPDATE... Issued at 133 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 Surface low seemed to have an extremely delayed intensification and will intensify further east, which resulted in a busted forecast for this event. Winter Weather Advisories over the I-25 corridor have been canceled. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 444 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 It is a complicated forecast for today. An upper level low will be over the Four Corners region early this morning and will track eastward across southern CO and northern NM thru the day, and will then move east of CO this evening, along the OK and KS border. Snow has already been occuring in the mtns and high valleys tonight, and as this system moves eastward, precip will spread eastward across the area as well. The NAM doesn't really have much in the way of precip occuring over eastern areas until late this afternoon, while the GFS and HRRR have more precip occurring earlier in the day. Will base the forecast PoPs more on the GFS and HRRR. By late morning it looks like the central mtns, Fremont, Custer, Teller, El Paso and Pueblo Counties should be seeing high chances for precip and QPF looks decent. Gusty northerly winds will be spreading south along the I-25 corridor in the late morning hours as well. At the same time, the southwest mtns should also still be seeing snow, but QPF is a little lower than areas farther north. Then in the early and mid afternoon hours, precip will continue spreading eastward across the plains, as will the gusty north winds. The RAP and the GFS have the area of higher QPF shifting over Crowley, western Kiowa, Otero and eastern Pueblo Counties, while the RAP shifts it to the southern I-25 corridor. In the evening, as the upper low starts to move away from the area, the precip chances will be decreasing from west to east. There will still be high chances for precip over the eastern plains in the early evening, and it won't be until the late night hours that precip comes to an end across all of the area. The snow amount forecast is difficult today for a couple reasons. One is that temps are going to be hard to forecast today and will make a huge difference as to whether precip will be in the form of snow, rain, or a combination. A lot of areas over the plains should be too warm this afternoon for snow or there will be a mixture of rain and snow and there will not be accumulating snow. However, the southern I-25 corridor from south of Pueblo to Raton Pass should see some snow accumulations, as well as the northern two-thirds of El Paso County. Snow accumulations should continue in the mtn areas this afternoon, with the Sangre de Cristo and Wet mtns and the Pikes Peak area likely seeing the highest accumulations. Another thing that complicates the QPF and snow amount forecast is the expected convective nature of the precip this afternoon which could lead to areas of heavier precip that are difficult to forecast. Forecast models show enough instability today that there will be the potential for some thunder. At this time I don't see a reason to make any changes to the ongoing winter weather highlights. The winter weather advisory that is in effect for Pueblo County is mainly the far southwest portions of the county where snow accumulations will be possible. Not sure that eastern Fremont County needs an advisory as accumulating snow and travel impact don't look likely at this time, but if temps end up being slightly cooler than the current forecast, then that could change. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 444 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 Initially, below seasonal late February temperatures in combination with gusty winds and snow showers at times(favoring but not limited to the Central Mountains, northern El Paso county and sections of the far eastern Colorado plains) are anticipated over the CWA from Monday into Tuesday as passing relatively weak upper disturbances interact with northerly component surface surges. At this time, it appears that the Central Mountains have the potential of experiencing 1 to 4 inches of snow from Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon, with remaining southern Colorado locations expected to note nil to under 1 inch snow amounts during this time-frame. Wednesday into Wednesday night should be a relatively dry period across the CWA, although the Central Mountains should note increasing light snow activity, especially by Wednesday night. In addition, the coldest minimum temperatures of the longer term should be realized Wednesday morning, with many single digit temperature readings anticipated. Per recent PVA analysis, computer simulations, forecast model soundings/etc. next upper disturbance in combination with another northerly component surface surge is expected to produce another round of primarily light snow over southeastern Colorado plains locations Thursday night, with light snow also continuing over the Central Mountains. In addition, below seasonal temperatures are expected to persist. Then, transitory upper ridging is expected to provide southern Colorado with warmer and drier conditions from Friday into Saturday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1013 AM MST Sun Feb 23 2020 Convective snow and rain has formed over KCOS and is expected to form over KPUB shortly. Since the precipitation is convective, prevailing conditions are tough to pinpoint, but overall there will be periods of MVFR and IFR during the afternoon. Snow chances diminish shortly after sunset. VFR conditions are expected afterward. Gusty winds will continue through the afternoon for KCOS and KPUB. There will be showers in the vicinity of KALS, so if a shower develops overhead, MVFR to IFR conditions are possible. VFR conditions are expected through the night and morning. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for COZ074- 075-077>080. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MST this afternoon for COZ058- 060-061-063-068. Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for COZ072- 073-076. && $$ UPDATE...SKELLY AVIATION...SKELLY |