419 FXUS65 KPUB 052338 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 538 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A couple of strong to marginally severe storms will be possible across the far eastern plains this evening and again Sunday afternoon. - Scattered thunderstorms continue across the area Monday, then hotter and drier weather expected Tue/Wed with only very isolated storm activity. - Hot Thursday, but with an uptick in thunderstorm chances as a cold front approaches, then cooler Friday with scattered storms. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Currently...Upper ridge of high pressure was building across the Desert SW this afternoon, as an upper shortwave was pushing across ID and the northern Rockies. Plenty of sun across southern Colorado today has helped warm temps into the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys as of 1 PM, and into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains. A few showers and storms have developed across the Raton Mesa and across eastern Kiowa County. Tonight...The shortwave to the north is going to be the key in enhancing convective activity this evening. Moisture has been in place throughout the day, as evidenced by the early morning AC and the convection currently firing. As the northern shortwave pushes east through tonight, bulk shear will be on the increase across northeastern CO, trailing down into the far southeastern plains. Available CAPE of 1000-1200 j/kg and bulk shear increasing to around 45 kts points to a better shot at stronger to potentially severe thunderstorms this evening for the far eastern plains, specifically across Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties, which is why SPC updated the severe outlook earlier and included Kiowa within the Slight area for severe weather. Hi-res models are indicating that storm activity will linger late tonight for the far eastern plains, and may last into the overnight hours. Main threats will be strong gusts around 60 mph, small hail, brief periods of moderate to heavy rain and of course cloud to ground lightning. Overnight minimum temps are expected to cool into the 40s for the high valleys, while remaining somewhat mild for the plains with mid 50s to mid 60s. Sunday...Tomorrow looks like it will be a very similar day compared to today, though without the help of an upper shortwave crossing to the north. However, models are indicating an increase in residual llvl moisture, leading to model CAPE of 1600-1800 j/kg lurking across the eastern plains through the day. Bulk shear is still forecast to be around 40 kts, so not as strong as this afternoon and eve but still respectable. SPC has a bit more coverage of the Slight area for severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains, so plan on convection to start firing once again by early afternoon, with the strongest storms likely across the far eastern plains late afternoon into the evening. Main threats with the stronger storms will once again be strong gusty outflow winds, small hail and brief periods of moderate to heavy rain. Another warm, but seasonal, day is on tap, with highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Upper ridge begins to build Mon afternoon, though with low level moisture lingering, scattered afternoon/evening storms will again be possible, especially across the eastern mountains/I-25 corridor/southeast plains. Should be enough instability (CAPE 1k-2k J/KG) for a few stronger storms on the plains, though decreased shear (0-6km 20-30 kts) may keep a lid on storm strength, with lower end severe storms (wind 60 mph/quarter size hail) the main risk. Ridge builds overhead on Tue/Wed, bringing hot temps and generally suppressing convection across much of the area. Still enough moisture around for some isolated higher terrain and KS border storms both days, though weak winds aloft and limited instability should keep activity rather weak/short lived. Max temps will climb back into toward the 100f degree mark on the plains, with 80s/90s widespread at lower elevations, 70s/80s mountains. 00z deterministic models continue to show a strong short wave racing across the nrn U.S. late Thu into Fri, pushing a rather strong cold front south through Colorado late Thu/early Fri, with timing of frontal passage 8-12 hrs faster in the 00z runs. Front should provide forcing for increased thunderstorm chances Thu afternoon/evening, with another round of showers and thunderstorms on Friday in moister, post-frontal upslope pattern. Front should arrive late enough to make for another hot day on Thu, with maxes near 100f again on the plains, before cooler air spread south on Fri, dropping temps back toward seasonal averages. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 534 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 KALS: VFR through 24 hours with diurnally-driven winds. Winds will gusts to around 20 knots for a few more hours this evening before weakening overnight. Mid-level clouds will roll in and out. KCOS and KPUB: Showers and storms will remain in the area for several hours this evening, sending out various outflow boundaries and kicking winds around every few hours this evening. Chances of precipitation at the terminals is still low, given the isolated nature of storms, so left as PROB30 for now. The area will dry out after 06-08Z, depending on how long outflow sticks around, with winds weakening. If a storm does manage to move over a terminal, expect brief periods of MVFR and gusts over 30 knots or so. At KCOS, mid-level clouds will stick around into Sunday, with more showers and storms moving over the Palmer in the afternoon. For KPUB, some lingering moisture overnight may result in some brief clouds right around high-MVFR that mix out later in the morning. Winds will then return to diurnal patterns, and current outlooks have showers too isolated to put in this round of TAFs for KPUB. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO |