Weather Service Report


419 
FXUS65 KPUB 052338
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
538 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple of strong to marginally severe storms will be
  possible across the far eastern plains this evening and again
  Sunday afternoon.

- Scattered thunderstorms continue across the area Monday, then
  hotter and drier weather expected Tue/Wed with only very 
  isolated storm activity.

- Hot Thursday, but with an uptick in thunderstorm chances as a
  cold front approaches, then cooler Friday with scattered
  storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Currently...Upper ridge of high pressure was building across the 
Desert SW this afternoon, as an upper shortwave was pushing across 
ID and the northern Rockies. Plenty of sun across southern Colorado 
today has helped warm temps into the 70s to around 80F for the high 
valleys as of 1 PM, and into the mid 80s to lower 90s for the 
plains. A few showers and storms have developed across the Raton 
Mesa and across eastern Kiowa County.

Tonight...The shortwave to the north is going to be the key in 
enhancing convective activity this evening. Moisture has been in 
place throughout the day, as evidenced by the early morning AC and 
the convection currently firing. As the northern shortwave pushes 
east through tonight, bulk shear will be on the increase across 
northeastern CO, trailing down into the far southeastern plains. 
Available CAPE of 1000-1200 j/kg and bulk shear increasing to around 
45 kts points to a better shot at stronger to potentially severe 
thunderstorms this evening for the far eastern plains, specifically 
across Kiowa, Bent and Prowers counties, which is why SPC updated 
the severe outlook earlier and included Kiowa within the Slight area 
for severe weather. Hi-res models are indicating that storm activity 
will linger late tonight for the far eastern plains, and may last 
into the overnight hours. Main threats will be strong gusts around 
60 mph, small hail, brief periods of moderate to heavy rain and of 
course cloud to ground lightning. Overnight minimum temps are 
expected to cool into the 40s for the high valleys, while remaining 
somewhat mild for the plains with mid 50s to mid 60s.

Sunday...Tomorrow looks like it will be a very similar day compared 
to today, though without the help of an upper shortwave crossing to 
the north. However, models are indicating an increase in residual 
llvl moisture, leading to model CAPE of 1600-1800 j/kg lurking 
across the eastern plains through the day. Bulk shear is still 
forecast to be around 40 kts, so not as strong as this afternoon and 
eve but still respectable. SPC has a bit more coverage of the Slight 
area for severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains, so plan on 
convection to start firing once again by early afternoon, with the 
strongest storms likely across the far eastern plains late afternoon 
into the evening. Main threats with the stronger storms will once 
again be strong gusty outflow winds, small hail and brief periods of 
moderate to heavy rain. Another warm, but seasonal, day is on tap, 
with highs in the 80s for the high valleys, and upper 80s to mid 90s 
for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 AM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper ridge begins to build Mon afternoon, though with low 
level moisture lingering, scattered afternoon/evening storms 
will again be possible, especially across the eastern 
mountains/I-25 corridor/southeast plains. Should be enough 
instability (CAPE 1k-2k J/KG) for a few stronger storms on the 
plains, though decreased shear (0-6km 20-30 kts) may keep a lid 
on storm strength, with lower end severe storms (wind 60 
mph/quarter size hail) the main risk. 

Ridge builds overhead on Tue/Wed, bringing hot temps and 
generally suppressing convection across much of the area. Still 
enough moisture around for some isolated higher terrain and KS 
border storms both days, though weak winds aloft and limited 
instability should keep activity rather weak/short lived. Max 
temps will climb back into toward the 100f degree mark on the 
plains, with 80s/90s widespread at lower elevations, 70s/80s 
mountains. 00z deterministic models continue to show a strong 
short wave racing across the nrn U.S. late Thu into Fri, pushing
a rather strong cold front south through Colorado late 
Thu/early Fri, with timing of frontal passage 8-12 hrs faster 
in the 00z runs. Front should provide forcing for increased 
thunderstorm chances Thu afternoon/evening, with another round 
of showers and thunderstorms on Friday in moister, post-frontal 
upslope pattern. Front should arrive late enough to make for 
another hot day on Thu, with maxes near 100f again on the 
plains, before cooler air spread south on Fri, dropping temps 
back toward seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

KALS: VFR through 24 hours with diurnally-driven winds. Winds will 
gusts to around 20 knots for a few more hours this evening before 
weakening overnight. Mid-level clouds will roll in and out.

KCOS and KPUB: Showers and storms will remain in the area for 
several hours this evening, sending out various outflow boundaries 
and kicking winds around every few hours this evening. Chances of 
precipitation at the terminals is still low, given the isolated 
nature of storms, so left as PROB30 for now. The area will dry out 
after 06-08Z, depending on how long outflow sticks around, with 
winds weakening. If a storm does manage to move over a terminal, 
expect brief periods of MVFR and gusts over 30 knots or so. 

At KCOS, mid-level clouds will stick around into Sunday, with more 
showers and storms moving over the Palmer in the afternoon. For 
KPUB, some lingering moisture overnight may result in some brief 
clouds right around high-MVFR that mix out later in the morning. 
Winds will then return to diurnal patterns, and current outlooks 
have showers too isolated to put in this round of TAFs for KPUB.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu