145 FXUS65 KPUB 201738 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1138 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Currently... Satellite imagery indicates monsoon plume has become somewhat constricted as upper trough over NW NM advects drier air in from the east. Convection over the SW CONUS is noticeably less as compared to this time yesterday. Nonetheless a few showers were noted over western CO with a bit more activity over SE UT. Over the immediate forecast area, radar showed dry conditions, but a few light showers were likely in the mtns along the divide. Temps were quite mild across the region at 3 am as reading sere int he 70s across all of the plains, with 50s and 60s across the valleys and generally 40s in the mtns. Sfc obs were indicating a weak boundary moving south with time as a wind shift line was noted from roughly Pueblo northeastward up towards Burlington. Today... I anticipate we will see less overall convection in the mtns today as compared to yesterday as drier air aloft has moved in from the east. We will still see scattered storms, especially over the central mtns, but overall coverage will be less. However, there still will be a chance of flash flooding if a storm forms over a burn scar or the Chalk Bluffs area near Mt Princeton (Flash flooding occurred in this region yesterday per local storm reports). Most of the plains will be dry, with warmer temps then yesterday. 100F readings will likely occur across all over the lower ark rvr valley. Tonight... Besides isolated storms in the mtns, with a few moving onto the adjacent plains in the evening, it will be dry. By later tonight believe best chance of any precip will mainly be over the SW mtns. Lows tonight will be in the 60s plains with 40s and 50s in the higher country. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 411 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 .Friday...Upper level high moves to the east of the region. Increased southerly flow over the state will bring the plume of monsoon moisture northward into Colorado. Most abundant moisture will be over the mountains where have the highest PoPs and best chances for locally heavy downpours. With southerly flow aloft and drier air over the plains, suspect storms will have a hard time moving eastward onto the plains of southern Colorado. Another warm day for the plains with highs in the 90s to lower 100s. .Saturday and Sunday...Cold front will moves south of the region by midday Saturday with moist upslope flow on the plains behind the front. Saturday could be a wet day over the plains and eastern mountains with moist lower level upslope and a monsoon plume in the middle and upper levels. Bufkit soundings have over an inch or precipitable water for the plains. Storms will move eastward during Saturday afternoon and evening onto the plains. Main question will be the amount of instability further east for storms to produce significant rainfall. On Sunday, front is further south with deepest moisture in New Mexico. There will still be enough moisture for afternoon and evening thunderstorms with the potential for some locally heavy downpours. Shear will be weak so main threats from storms will be locally heavy rain. .Monday through Wednesday...Upper high builds over the four corners region. Main monsoon plume stays west of the forecast area and a weak lee trough develops on the plains. There will still be enough recycled moisture for some diurnal convection, but threat for locally heavy rain will decrease. --PGW-- && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1134 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017 Generally, VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) for the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across the central and southern Colorado mountains this afternoon and last into the evening. Isolated activity may spread near KCOS by early evening. Brief periods of MVFR conditions may occur at KCOS if moderate to heavy rainfall moves into the vicinity. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HODANISH LONG TERM...PGW AVIATION...LINE |