626 FXUS65 KPUB 160302 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 902 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 902 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 Cancelled the FFA for the Pikes Peak region, with the threat of heavy rain likely diminished for the rest of night. FFA continues for tomorrow afternoon for the newer burn areas across the Wet and Sangre de Cristo Mts. Looking at the 00Z run of the NAM, would tend to believe its QPF is overdone, however, I have kept scattered pops across the I-25 Corridor past midnight, with the area of showers and associated lift currently translating south and east across northeastern Colorado. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 ...Heavy rainfall expected with the potential for flash flooding greatest across the Pikes Peak region and newer burn scars in the southeast mountains... Currently...radar indicates slow moving thunderstorms developing across the region. A couple of stronger cells have developed over El Paso County and radar estimates of 1 to 3 inches have fallen near Ellicot. Elsewhere, slow moving thunderstorms continue to develop and so far have missed burn scars. It should be noted that if one of these storms moves over a burn scar, rain rates will be high and flash flooding possible through much of tonight. At the surface, a cold front is currently dropping south to near Highway 50 across the Plains. Ahead of this front, southeast flow and abundant moisture remain across the Plains, while northerly flow drops south behind the front. This frontal boundary should provide the focus for additional thunderstorm development through this afternoon. Temperatures are warm ahead of the front with lower to mid 90s across the Plains. Through Tonight...the upper level high is currently sitting over Utah while an upper level shortwave trough moves east across Wyoming into Nebraska. Energy trailing from the shortwave trough is currently sagging southward across Colorado and will provide the focus for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity for late this afternoon and tonight. Various high-res model solutions put the primary focus over the Palmer Divide, south into the Pueblo area through this evening. A couple of the model solutions actually keep showers and thunderstorms going through tonight into Monday morning. This will all depend on how quickly the upper shortwave moves off to the east. Expect easterly moist upslope flow to develop by morning behind the front, which may also keep rain going along the I-25 corridor. Locally heavy rainfall will remain a threat, especially over the Pikes Peak region, Colorado Springs urban areas and fresh burn scars of the Eastern Mountains. If one of these slow moving thunderstorms moves over a burn scar, flash flooding and debris flows will be possible. In addition, lightning and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible. Stronger storms over the Palmer Divide region will be capable of half inch hail through this evening. Temperatures will be mild overnight with mid 50s to lower 60s for lows. Monday...the upper level high is forecast to remain nearly stationary over Utah while the departing shortwave continues to influence southern Colorado. Flow at the surface will shift easterly to southeasterly by mid day, with abundant low level moisture continuing across the region. Late morning and afternoon instability will once again lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region. The focus looks to shift south along the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountains, which includes several recent burn scars. Flash flooding and debris flows will remain possible. There is also the possibility of stronger storms out across the Eastern Plains during the afternoon where nickle size hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats. Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs in the 80s across the region. Mozley .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 Center of upper level high pressure remains near the 4 corners on Tue, with weak W-NW flow aloft across CO. Mid levels, especially over the central mountains, begin to dry out Tue afternoon, while low and mid level moisture lingers over srn and ern CO. Expect best coverage of convection Tue to be over the ern mountains and plains where moisture/instability is deepest/highest, and ern San Juans could see fairly high tsra chances as well. Wrn ridge begins to amplify slightly on Wed as short wave trough pushes into the upper Midwest. Precipitable water values continue to decrease across much of the region with mid level moist plume suppressed south, so expect a generally drier/hotter day most locations Wed, though residual moisture will likely fire some isolated/weak storms over the mountains in the afternoon. Slightly deeper moisture then spreads back across srn CO Thu/Fri as ridge begins to drift back east, with high pressure center somewhere near the TX Panhandle by late Fri evening. Should see a modest upturn in convection over the mountains both days, and a few storms will likely leak out onto the plains, especially if low level moisture increase portrayed by the GFS occurs. Convective details get a little fuzzy over the weekend with GFS/ECMWF slightly different in their depiction of the upper ridge position and location of short wave energy, though both would suggest at least a low grade monsoon tap will continue, with daily chances for tsra and temps at or slightly above seasonal averages. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 239 PM MDT Sun Jul 15 2018 Thunderstorms have started to develop across the region. Expect storms to impact all three terminals this afternoon and evening. Storms will be capable of producing erratic winds, small hail and heavy rainfall, especially at KCOS and KPUB. Timing will depend on a cold front, which has already shifted winds north with gusts to 23 kts at KCOS, and will continue south into KPUB by 23z. Gusty winds will accompany the front as it arrives. Expect thunderstorms to produce reduced VIS and CIGS as they pass, with more rain showers expected well into the evening. There is also a low probability of fog at KALS during the morning hours. Mozley && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for COZ072>075- 078>080-087. && $$ UPDATE...MW SHORT TERM...MOZLEY LONG TERM...PETERSEN AVIATION...MOZLEY |