524
FXUS65 KREV 032101
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
201 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Critical fire weather conditions, gusty winds, along with
shower and thunderstorm chances are expected this afternoon and
evening.
* Temperatures will cool to below seasonal averages for
Independence Day, with precipitation chances confined to
northeast California.
* A gradual warming trend begins Saturday through early next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough passing through the region starting this
afternoon through tomorrow brings gusty winds and elevated to
critical fire weather conditions. Gusty winds are expected to
start early this afternoon across portions of western Nevada, the
Sierra and northeast California. Winds speeds from the west and
southwest between 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph while wind prone
areas may reach gusts up to 45 to 50 mph. These winds will bring
impacts to aviation and recreational activities, especially in the
lakes, this afternoon and evening. Blowing dust is also a concern
over the NV Basin and Range, and Mineral county, especially near
I-80 and US-50. Showers and thunderstorms in the area may further
complicate impacts created by blowing dust. Chances for storms,
around 10-30%, later today are focused over NE CA and the NV Basin
and Range generally between 1 PM to 2 AM.
Tomorrow (Independence Day), rain and storm chances appear to be
confined mostly to NE CA and NW NV near the OR border. Storm
chances are relatively the same around 10-30% again. Therefore,
the main concern tomorrow is still wind. Westerly winds up to
30-35 mph and gusts up to 45-50 mph in wind prone areas are
likely. However, the duration of winds appears to be quite short.
Anyway, aviation and recreational interests should pay attention
to weather conditions near peak heating time between 2PM - 6PM,
when the strongest winds of the day are expected. The good news
for tomorrow is that afternoon highs will be significantly cooler
compared to today. Temperatures will be around 5 to 15 degrees
below average for early July. Western NV and NE CA afternoon highs
will be in the 80s to around 90, while the Sierra communities
drop to the 60s and 70s.
This weekend, a high pressure area develops over the Desert
Southwest that will contribute to dry conditions and a gradual
warm up. The high pressure area slowly retrogrades from the Four
Corners back towards the Las Vegas area next week. This will bring
back well above average afternoon temperatures for the second
week of July. By mid-week, the possibility of reaching the century
mark returns for the lower valleys in the NV Basin and Range with
a 60-80% chance.
-HC
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are anticipated for most of the CWA. The exception
is in areas near the OR border and Pershing/Churchill/Mineral
Counties (KLOL-KHTH) as there are 20-30% chances of showers and
thunderstorms between 03/20Z through 04/09Z. Primary hazards from
storms include gusty/erratic winds and occasional lightning.
Otherwise, westerly to southwesterly afternoon winds gusting up to
around 30 kts. LLWS and turbulence are likely after 06Z this
evening.
-078/HC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated to critical conditions are still expected for the rest
of this afternoon and evening. West to southwest winds between
15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph and wind prone areas with gusts
up to 45 mph along with min RH below 15%. The main areas of
concern continue to be western NV. Portions of NE CA and the lower
elevations of the Sierra will have similar conditions. Therefore,
the Red Flag Warning continues to be in effect through midnight.
Potential for isolated dry lightning is expected this afternoon
for the northern portions of Washoe county and northeast CA. The
eastern half of Pershing, Churchill and Mineral county has a
10-30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
For Independence Day, elevated to critical fire weather
conditions are possible again due to breezy westerly winds and low
minimum relative humidity values in the forecast during the
afternoon hours. However, the duration of elevated to critical
conditions appears to be brief, and only over isolated portions of
northern Washoe, the southwestern portions of the NV Basin and
Range, and the southeastern Sierra Front.
-HC/078
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight PDT tonight NVZ420-
421-423-429-458.
Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening NVZ002-004.
CA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight PDT tonight CAZ278.
Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this
evening CAZ072-073.
&&
$$
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