Weather Service Report


448 
FXUS65 KREV 241005
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
205 AM PST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Below average temperatures will persist as low pressure remains 
over the West. A weak system today will bring gusty winds, choppy 
lake conditions, and a few snow showers north of Interstate 80. 
The next cold front and chance of snow is possible Monday. The 
pattern remains active with a potentially stronger storm by 
Thursday and Friday. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...
No major changes made to the forecast early this morning. Just a 
reminder to monitor the forecast through the weekend, especially 
if you have travel plans on Monday morning as another pesky 
"slider" type storm is on tap for the Sierra and western Nevada. 
Oh, and don't forget to keep an eye on Thursday-Friday too since 
another stronger storm will likely disrupt travel for that time 
frame. 

A quick moving shortwave will brush through Nevada today with the 
primary impacts being brisk gusty winds and some snow showers for 
areas mainly north of Interstate 80 and east of Highway 95. There 
may be a few light snow showers that move across portions of the 
Sierra this afternoon as well, but generally very light 
accumulations are expected. Wind gusts will be between 35 to 45 mph 
areawide, with choppy lake conditions likely for Pyramid Lake and 
Lake Tahoe. Lake wind advisories are in effect today to highlight 
these hazardous boating conditions. 

So here we are once again with a "slider" in the forecast for a 
Monday morning commute. I wish that I could tell you that this storm 
is a slam dunk forecast, but alas that just isn't how "slider"
storms operate. For the moment, the storm still looks promising 
for snow across the Sierra and western Nevada for Monday. There is
a strong cold front with the system as well as an area of upper 
level divergence across the Tahoe basin and into the I80 corridor 
would allow for decent snowfall potential. The fly in the 
ointment continues to be the concerns associated with the strength
and the NE-SW orientation of the backside jet on this storm, 
which would tend to split the storm and leave much of the Sierra 
and western Nevada with little to no snowfall. Have maintained the
conservative approach with this storm and the snowfall totals. We
can't emphasize enough that if you have travel plans Monday, we 
highly recommend that you keep up with the latest Area Forecast 
Discussion as this storm has the potential to be a pretty 
significant travel headache. -Edan

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday...

Tuesday could feature some leftover wrap-around snow showers south 
of Highway 50 behind Monday's system. The chances were kept fairly 
low as the system could drop as far west as the southern California 
coast which would keep most leftover showers south and west of Mono 
and Mineral Counties. In any case, Tuesday will be another much 
below normal temperature day.

For Tuesday night and Wednesday, low chances for precipitation 
remain for some areas (generally north of I-80) as a weak wave 
slides over central and eastern Oregon. Model simulations 
have trended north and east with this wave so impacts are 
expected to be minimal.

Thursday and Friday, attention turns to a cold and much stronger 
trough dropping south over the eastern Pacific. Given its large size 
and position of the very cold air pool (-14C to -18C at 700 mb) over 
the Pacific, the system will have a much better chance to tap 
moisture and send it into the Sierra and western Nevada. In 
addition, simulations show a strong cold front with the low. With 
all this in mind, chances for substantial Sierra snowfall and at 
least some snow in western Nevada (possibly briefly mixing with 
rain) are increasing for next Thursday and Friday, with travel 
impacts from snow likely in the Sierra and possible in western 
Nevada. Time of day and intensity of precipitation are getting more 
crucial this late in the winter season so the details of travel 
impacts are too far out to discern, especially for the lower 
elevations. -Snyder/Hohmann

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty west to northwest winds across the ridges will work down to 
lower elevations by this afternoon and increase turbulence 
east of the Sierra as a shortwave system passes just to our north. 
Lower elevations are expected to see gusts 25-35 kts with ridge 
gusts approaching 75 kts. 

A few snow showers are possible today, mainly north of Interstate
80 and east of Fallon. CIGS/VIS mainly VFR, although for brief 
periods of MVFR with terrain obscuration possible with showers 
north of I-80. Hohmann/Snyder

&&


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Lake Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM PST this evening for 
     Pyramid Lake in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this 
     evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002.

CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this 
     evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/reno

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu