Weather Service Report


312 
FXUS66 KSTO 261614 AAA
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
915 AM PDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler, but still remaining close to average into the weekend.

&&

.Discussion...
Short wave trof will be moving across our Nrn Mtn zones this 
afternoon with instability forecast over the Trinity Alps/Siskiyous, 
just N of our CWA where isolated convection is expected. Less 
instability forecast on Tue even though weak troffing persists over 
the region. This is the result of today's short wave providing 
stronger dynamics than Tue's. CAPE and modified Total Totals are 
much lower on Tue than today.  

Break down of the ridge over the W Coast allows for a cooler air 
mass over our CWA. Onshore gradients have advected some marine 
stratus inland, into the coastal valleys with some patchy stratus 
into the Srn Sac Vly. Ft Ord and the KOAK raob show marine layer 
about 3 kft and 2.5 kft respectively, which is sufficiently deep for 
at least some stratus to make it inland given onshore gradients and 
onshore momentum. The NAM Bufkit profiles suggest slight deepening 
of the marine layer Tue morning, but the onshore gradients should be 
weaker as the aforementioned short wave will be farther inland. 
Although the Delta Breeze will continue it should be weakening with 
time into Tue. So only patchy stratus inland is expected at this 
time for Tue morning. 

Near normal temps expected next couple of days with a warm up to 2 
to 7 degrees above normal for the mid and latter half of the week. 
LAV guidance trending lower than our forecast maxes in some areas 
and may have to lower max temps in a morning update.  JHM

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
Warm weather should continue into Friday as high pressure over 
the eastern Pacific nudges into Northern California. A series of 
weak upper troughs then begins to move through the region next 
weekend, bringing another cooling trend along with increased 
onshore flow. The GFS is a bit stronger with the series of troughs
than the ECMWF, but neither solution would be particularly 
impactful for our area. Dang

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions the next 24 hours. South to west winds 5 to 15 kt 
will continue across Valley TAF sites. SW gusts up to 30 kt near 
the Delta. Dang

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu