Weather Service Report


902 
FXUS66 KSEW 152211
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
311 PM PDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The dry and very warm pattern will continue through
Thursday with elevated and even critical fire weather 
conditions for parts of western Washington, and widespread 
moderate HeatRisk. More moderate temperatures and continued dry conditions
will return to the area Friday into the weekend. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...Building upper 
level high pressure and the thermally induced surface trough 
moving up from Oregon have pretty quickly boosted temps this
afternoon. Temperatures already running anywhere from 10 to 25 
degrees warmer than this time yesterday. The low level
northeasterly flow will continue overnight will limit overnight
cooling over much of the area. This will especially be true for
locations with even a slight easterly component to the wind
where overnight lows will remain in the low 60s. Spots near the
water or with little or now wind may manage to drop into the 
upper 50s.

Wednesday remains on track for the warmest day, with warm temps
aloft and the thermally induced surface trough over the area in
the morning. Highs over the interior will reach into the upper
80s to mid 90s. For the coast, burgeoning onshore flow with the
surface trough shifting east will limit the warming there to the
70s and perhaps low 80s. The low level onshore flow Wednesday
night into Thursday is not expected to be fully developed - will
likely result in a warm - but somewhat cooler day for much of
the interior Thursday with high in the 80s. Widespread moderate
HeatRisk conditions will linger across much of Western 
Washington through Wednesday with some improvement Thursday. 
The heat advisory remains in effect through 10 pm Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Ensembles continue to
agree on the a cooling trend becoming more fully established
Friday with a more typical low level onshore flow pattern 
continuing through the weekend. This will result in  near- or 
even below-normal temperatures. but continued dry through the 
weekend. The only exception is the odd chance at light showers 
over the northern Washington Cascades Sunday and again Monday 
with weak upper level systems brushing the area. Highs in the 
70s and lower 80s Friday lowering to the upper 60s to mid 70s 
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, with 
the exception of KHQM. Guidance hints at IFR/LIFR conditions 
returning early Wednesday morning after 7z-9z, with improvement 
expected after 19z-21z. Breezy northerly surface winds this 
afternoon/evening across Puget Sound terminals 10-14 kt, with gusts 
around 15-20 kt possible. Winds will ease overnight and become 
slightly more northeasterly. Winds will become more westerly 
Wednesday morning into the afternoon. 

KSEA...VFR conditions expected to prevail with mostly clear skies. 
Breezy northerly winds this afternoon around 11-14 kt, with gusts up 
to 20 kt possible. Winds will become more northeasterly overnight 
and subside to 3-6 kt. Guidance hints at winds becoming westerly 
Wednesday around 16z-19z.  

29

&&

.MARINE...Surface high pressure will retreat west into the NE 
Pacific with a surface trough expected to move over the waters on 
Wednesday. This will bring increased wind speeds across the coastal 
waters late Wednesday morning through early Thursday morning. The 
strongest winds will be in the outer coastal waters, with gusts 
having the potential to reach up to 30 kt. As a result, a Small 
Craft Advisory has been issued. In addition to winds, seas will 
build 8-11 ft for the outer coastal waters by Wednesday evening. 
Moving forward, high pressure will remain over the NE Pacific and 
will begin to rebuild over area waters on Friday into the weekend. 
Waves will be on a decrease trend Thursday and Friday to around 6-9 
ft, with waves 5 ft or below through the weekend into early next 
week.

Westerly pushes across the Strait of Juan de Fuca will occur each 
evening with onshore flow returning with varying degrees of 
strength. The push across the Strait on Wednesday and Thursday look 
to remain below advisory criteria. However, the pushes on Friday and 
may meet lower-end small craft thresholds.   

29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Widespread elevated fire weather conditions will 
continue into Thursday. The Fire Weather Watch for the southwest WA 
lowlands was cancelled due to no longer expecting the onshore 
gradient to develop quickly enough to result in a strong push of 
wind, while the relative humidities remain low. The watch for the 
Cascade mountains zones 658 and 659 was upgrade to a Red Flag 
Warning. Depending on the placement of the thermal trough, expect to 
see a deeper mixed layer and increased instability over the Cascades 
with mixing heights potentially rising into Wednesday. Wednesday 
will have the worst fire weather conditions for existing incidents 
and the potential for any new ones if they were to begin. Cooling 
trend beginning Thursday with temperatures dropping below normal 
Saturday. Minimum RH values increasing Thursday into the weekend 
with the return of low level onshore flow. Felton/Bower&&

.HYDROLOGY...

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for West 
     Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet-
     West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 
     Feet.

     Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for City of Seattle-
     Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-
     Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-
     Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King 
     Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern 
     King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis 
     Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-
     Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands 
     of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western 
     Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of 
     Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-
     Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-
     Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood 
     Canal.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday 
     for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 
     To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point 
     Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville 
     To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.

&&

$$

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu