Weather Service Report


612 
FXUS66 KMTR 081134
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
434 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 118 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - One more day of cool conditions before warmer temperatures
   return Wednesday through the weekend, with patchy Moderate
   HeatRisk across the Bay Area and Central Coast.

 - Localized elevated fire weather threat Wednesday through the
   weekend across the higher elevations.

 - Slight risk (20-40% probability) of extreme heat in the far
   interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast July 15-17.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 118 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025
(Today and tonight)

Marine layer clouds blanket the coast and are expanding into the 
inland valleys through the rest of the morning, with coastal drizzle 
possible through the morning hours. Low temperatures hover in the 
upper 40s to the middle 50s in the lower elevations, and up to the 
lower 60s in the highest peaks. An upper level low pressure system 
off the California coast continues to diminish and drift northwards, 
but it will provide us one more day of temperatures cooler than 
seasonal averages, with highs ranging from the middle 70s to lower 
80s inland, up to the lower 90s in the warmest spots of southern 
Monterey and San Benito counties, into the middle 60s to middle 70s 
along the Bays, and into the upper 50s to the lower 60s along the 
Pacific coast. The onshore winds this afternoon and evening will be 
lighter than those seen yesterday, partially as a result of a 
relaxing pressure gradient aloft from the weakening low, but gusts 
around 20 mph are still possible through the gaps, passes, and the 
Salinas Valley. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 118 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)

The dissipating upper level low will move inland near the California-
Oregon border and allow a ridge centered over the Desert Southwest 
to expand into southern California, where heat products will go into 
effect starting Wednesday morning. Our part of the state will still 
experience a warming trend, with Wednesday's highs rising to the 80s 
inland with the warmest spots in southern Monterey and San Benito 
counties reaching the upper 90s. Ensemble model cluster analysis has 
begin homing in on the Bay Area and Central Coast seeing more zonal 
flow as the heat peaks on Thursday and Friday, moderating the heat 
impacts as the southern part of the state swelters. The inland 
valleys see highs in the middle 80s to middle 90s on both days, 
while the warmest interior locations see temperatures rising up to a 
few degrees above 100. In terms of HeatRisk, patches of Moderate 
HeatRisk are expected on Thursday and Friday across the interior 
North Bay, East Bay, and South Bay, in addition to the Santa Lucia 
mountains and the southern tip of San Benito County. Remember to 
take frequent cooling breaks and drink plenty of water if 
participating in outdoor activities on both days.

Temperatures for the upcoming weekend will cool slightly to the 
lower 80s to lower 90s in the interior Bay Area with an shortwave 
trough coming through the West Coast, while the interior Central 
Coast remains rather warm with temperatures in the 90s. Winds remain 
light and onshore through the weekend with locally breezier winds 
through the gaps, passes, and the Salinas Valley. Further afield, 
longer term outlooks show a lean towards temperatures above seasonal 
averages into the third week of July.

Small fuels have effectively cured and large fuels are continuing to 
cure across the region as the dry weather continues, with further 
drying expected as the temperatures warm Wednesday through the 
weekend. Localized fire weather threats are possible, particularly 
in higher elevations above marine layer influence. Extreme caution 
is advised if participating in outdoor activities involving open 
flames and sparks, noting that most wildfires are started by human 
activity. One less spark, one less wildfire!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 422 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings with a robust marine layer and onshore
flow combined with onshore SFO/WMC pressure gradient around +5. 
Expect a steady presence of stratus along the coast with VFR 
returning by late morning, similar to yesterday.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR ceilings are expected to persist with a
chance of occasional IFR ceilings with low confidence of if/when
timing may be. Expect a steady fetch of onshore flow becoming 
breezy through the afternoon into the early evening hours. Stratus
will return later tonight, likely around midnight. 

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR ceilings will persist through
the morning hours with some clearing expected, however stratus
will remain close to the coastline over the water through most of
the day. MVFR/IFR ceilings will return around sunset when breezy
onshore flow starts to ease.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM PDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Light to moderate southerly winds will persist today and tonight
with moderate seas. Winds gradually increase out of the northwest
on Wednesday with stronger winds by Thursday, along with building
seas becoming rough.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM

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