Weather Service Report


968 
FXUS65 KSLC 112135
AFDSLC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
335 PM MDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A prolonged stretch of hot and dry conditions
continues into next week. Chances for isolated high-based showers
and thunderstorms in the southern mountains return from Monday 
forward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of high pressure will dominate the overall 
pattern across the western US into early next week, resulting in a 
prolonged duration of above-normal heat. Near-average temperatures 
today tempers HeatRisk across a majority of the region except 
southern Utah, where areas of Moderate HeatRisk have emerged. 
Moderate HeatRisk becomes widespread across Utah and southwest 
Wyoming by Saturday, continuing through early next week. Some 
localized areas of Major HeatRisk emerge Sunday and Monday across 
warmest valleys of southern Utah, including St. George and portions 
of Lake Powell. If you plan to spend time outside this weekend, make 
sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade or air 
conditioning often. 

The ridge axis shifts offshore on Monday, which will allow modest 
moisture transport into the region. PWAT values gradually climb to 
around 0.6-0.7" on Monday, with strong surface heating sparking 
afternoon convection. As such, daily afternoon thunderstorm chances 
return Monday, continuing trough the remainder of the week. Coverage 
will be quite isolated and mainly tied to higher terrain as little 
synoptic forcing will be in place. A shortwave trough deepening 
along the west coast will introduce better dynamics over the region, 
which may lead to more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances in 
addition to increased afternoon winds through the end of the work 
week.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions will persist for the KSLC terminal 
through the period. Dry weather with clear skies will continue with 
typical diurnal wind switches from north this afternoon to south 
tonight and back to north on Saturday.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions will persist 
for the entire airspace through the period. Dry weather and clear 
skies will continue. Winds will become largely light and terrain 
driven as high pressure builds into the area. 


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures remain near climatological normals 
today, but are expected to nudge several degrees above average 
this weekend and into early next week as high pressure strengthens
across Utah. This heat will be complimented by very dry 
conditions, with daytime relative humidity values in the single 
digits to low teens across the state, in addition to poor 
overnight humidity recoveries. Worst overnight recoveries are
expected through Tuesday morning, with the main areas of concern 
across southwestern Utah and the West Desert, with recoveries 
between 25-35%, and eastern Utah, with recoveries between 20-25%. 

The area of high pressure moves slightly west Sunday into Monday,
which will allow modest mid-level moisture to sneak into the 
southern half of Utah. As such, chances for afternoon high-based 
showers and isolated thunderstorms increase on Monday afternoon, 
remaining a daily feature through the remainder of the week. A 
weather system dropping down the west coast on Wednesday brings 
increasing instability and thus increasing coverage of afternoon 
showers and thunderstorms through the latter half of the week. We 
will also see slight improvement in overnight humidity recoveries
from Wednesday morning through the remainder of the week as a 
result, but overall, not enough to sideline fire weather concerns.
Chances for wetting rains from showers and thunderstorms next 
week remains low, so the main concern will be lightning and gusty 
and erratic outflow winds, especially after a long stretch of hot 
and dry conditions.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Whitlam/Church

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu