Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KTWC 232105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
205 PM MST Sun Feb 23 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A slight chance of precipitation will linger into this 
evening across the White Mountains, otherwise dry conditions will 
prevail through the week with warming trend beginning Monday and 
persisting into next weekend. 


.DISCUSSION...Latest WV/IR satellite shows the mid/upper level low 
near the CO/NM border pushing eastward. A disturbance working down 
the backside of the low combined with residual lower level moisture 
is resulting in mostly cloudy to cloudy skies from Tucson north and 
eastward and partly sunny skies south and west of Tucson. There is 
still a slight chance of a shower mainly across northern Graham and 
Greenlee counties into the early evening, otherwise dry conditions 
for the remainder of the forecast area with below normal 
temperatures. Skies will tend to clear out tonight for the bulk of 
the region. 

Southeast Arizona will remain under northwesterly flow aloft for the 
first half of the week before stronger ridging builds in for the 
second half of the work week before gradually flattening out next 
weekend. With that said, dry conditions are expected with gradually 
warming daytime temperatures as heights and thicknesses gradually 
rise as the week progresses. Temperatures will initially start 
several degrees below normal on Monday but then rise to about 7 to 
10 degrees above normal by Friday and into the weekend. 

Just beyond the scope of this forecast package we are looking at 
considerable changes to the weather pattern as a strong and cold 
upper low digs southward from the Gulf of Alaska impacting our area 
March 2 and March 3. More on that as the week progresses. 


.AVIATION...Valid through 25/00Z.
SCT to locally BKN 4-8k ft AGL with a few -SHRA/mtn -SHSN possible 
mainly NE of Tucson until 24/04z then skies clearing. Light SFC 
winds through the period except W-NW 8-18 kt during the afternoon 
hours. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...A few rain and mountain snow showers into early this
evening northeast of Tucson. Otherwise dry weather is expected 
through the coming week. Rather dry air will move across the region 
late Tuesday on NE to Ely winds resulting in lower RH levels Tuesday 
afternoon into Friday. Gusty winds return to the area next Sunday in 
advance of an approaching weather system.





Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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