Weather Service Report

FXUS65 KTWC 262049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
149 PM MST Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The record heat is over but temperatures will still be 
hot through the week. We still have enough moisture for isolated to 
scattered showers into this evening and then again Tuesday across 
portions of Cochise County. Thereafter, dry conditions are expected 
to prevail the remainder of the work week.


.DISCUSSION...Flow pattern aloft shows a 500 mb high centered to our 
southwest across the northern Baja Peninsula. This is resulting in 
north-northeasterly flow aloft across the area. Still adequate 
moisture to work with this afternoon as PWAT values hang around 1 
inch with surface dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s. Current KEMX 
radar imagery shows thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson, primarily 
across the higher terrain. The expectation is most of the convection 
will remain east of Tucson, with the metro area being on the western 
fringe as the storms move south off the higher terrain such as the 
Catalinas. Main threat will be gusty outflow winds with areas of 
blowing dust possible along with brief downpours. A pretty good push 
of outflow is already about to come off the Mogollon Rim towards the 
Safford area. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms will gradually 
diminish after sunset. 

As the subtropical high remains to our south and weakens slightly 
for the next few days with increased westerly flow aloft, this will 
allow drier air to move into the forecast area along with some 
enhanced afternoon breezes in the Gila River valley. For Tuesday, 
just a slight chance of thunderstorms mainly across portions of 
Cochise County, then just a few build-ups along the international 
border the remainder of the work week but still expected to remain 
dry. Temperatures will cool down a couple of degrees this week but 
still slightly above normal which is still quite hot. Signs are 
there per both deterministic and ensemble guidance that some 
increased moisture will move back in for a return to some 
thunderstorm chances south and east of Tucson this weekend into 
early next week. 


.AVIATION...Valid thru 28/00Z.
SKC-SCT clouds 10-15k ft AGL from KTUS west, and mainly SCT-BKN 
clouds at 8-12k ft AGL east and south of KTUS thru the forecast 
period. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA mainly east and south of 
KTUS through this evening, with isolated SHRA/TSRA Tuesday afternoon 
near KDUG and KOLS. Surface wind north to northwest through this 
evening, then less than 12 kts tonight and Tuesday morning. A few of 
the stronger TSRA may produce wind gusts to 40 kts and brief MVFR 
conditions, especially near KDUG/KOLS. Aviation discussion not 
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms generally east 
and south of Tucson through Tuesday. Dry conditions Wednesday 
through Friday, then isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms 
return south and east of Tucson starting this weekend. 20-ft winds 
will exhibit diurnal trends with speeds mainly less than 15 mph 
through Tuesday. Breezy west to northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph are 
likely on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, especially in the upper 
Gila river valley. Periods of erratic gustiness may occur due to 
strong daytime heating and/or thunderstorm outflows. Lighter wind 
speeds returning by this weekend.







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