012 FXUS65 KVEF 291019 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 319 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the weekend with continued dry weather. Lighter winds are expected across most areas Thursday and Friday before the next weather disturbance brings breezy, southerly winds for the weekend. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday. High pressure will build along the West Coast on Thursday and Friday allowing for continued dry weather, lighter winds, and little change in temperatures each afternoon. Max temps will remain slightly above normal for late June/early July. High pressure drifts eastward on Saturday as next shortwave trough approaches and passes across the Great Basin into Saturday night. Breezy, southerly winds and a few extra high clouds across the southern Great Basin will be the main effects for the local area with this feature. Wind speeds Saturday afternoon will be near 10-15 mph gusting around 20 mph. .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. The forecast remains dry through the middle of next week, but there are indications of the monsoon pattern developing from Tuesday onward as an area of high pressure builds around the Four Corners region. There are model differences particularly between the GFS and ECMWF solutions which lower confidence in any details. The latest GFS depicts the broad closed high centered over the Four Corners Tuesday and Wednesday then heading west toward the Great Basin as a strong 600 dam closed 500 mb circulation. This pattern would generally keep any moisture over southern Arizona but possibly pulling up through southeast California. The ECMWF closer to the Four Corners Tuesday through Thursday and even indicates an inverted trough lifting up over northwest Mexico and the Gulf of California at the same time. This could open the door to moisture from Mexico moving up into northwest Arizona and possibly southern Nevada late next week. Subtle changes often come into play this time of year during the weak flow pattern so it is difficult to have much confidence...especially this far out. We will keep watching and waiting. Meanwhile, temperatures will be near normal early in the week then trend upward if the GFS depiction ends up being closer to reality. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather is expected through this upcoming weekend. The Red Flag Warning continues for Mohave County into this evening. However, winds do look to be slightly lower than previously forecast with southwest winds expected to be between 15-20 mph with gusts to around 25 mph through this evening. Other areas will see lighter winds on Thursday and Friday before picking up once again for the weekend as a shortwave trough moves through the region. Southerly winds around 15 mph gusting 20 mph are possible Saturday and Sunday. && .HYDROLOGY... Observed flows on unregulated creeks, specifically Independence Creek, Big Pine Creek and Rock Creek indicate flows continue to slowly decrease from their peak flows which occurred last week. However, creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern Sierra slopes of Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will continue flowing high and fast into the weekend. Minor flooding could occur near creeks as well as a few low water crossings on some roadways. Remember, never drive through flooded roadways or around barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers could experience areas of standing water. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...A light easterly wind component should become southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon followed by a switch to southwest in the evening and overnight under a clear sky. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will be variable and generally less than 15 knots across the region under a clear sky today and tonight. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Guillet LONG TERM/AVIATION....Adair For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: http://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter |