611 FXUS65 KVEF 231747 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 323 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2020 .SYNOPSIS...Lingering rain and higher elevation snow over the northern half of Mohave County will exit to the east by late this morning. Dry, breezy conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail today and tomorrow. Temperatures drop back down to seasonal normals on Tuesday but will quickly rebound during the second half of the work week. && .UPDATE...We had some reports of patchy dense fog in Pahrump Valley this morning. Judging from the GOES 17 fog satellite imagery, there were some very isolated pockets of dense fog areawide. With the sunrise, these have burned off and clouds associated with the system from yesterday have pushed east. Sunny skies with above-average temperatures expected today. Breezy north-northwest winds will set up across the region, but will be of minimal impact. No changes were made to the current forecast, as it looks to be in good shape. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...323 AM PST Sun Feb 23 2020/ .SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow. A low pressure system, which is currently centered just west of the Four Corners, continues to facilitate the development of a band of light to moderate rain/higher elevation snow as moisture wraps around on the back side of this system. This band of precipitation, which is pushing south of I-15 in southern Nevada, will continue to progress southeastward into Mohave County early this morning. Expect anywhere from a trace up to a couple tenths of an inch of liquid precip out of this band. Additional high elevation snowfall will set up over the Spring Mtns, Sheep Range, and higher elevations of the AZ Strip. Accumulations look to remain between 1 to 3 inches above 6500 feet. With the precip wrapping up across Lincoln County, have decided to cancel the Winter Weather Advisory a couple hours early. As the closed low exits to the east, it will pull the low ceilings and remaining rain/snow chances along with it. Any lingering activity in Mohave County should end by mid-morning. Dry weather and clear skies can be expected for the remainder of Sunday and into Monday. Breezy, north to northwest flow will be present today and tomorrow with speeds generally between 10 to 15 mph gusting 20 to 25 mph. Above normal temps expected. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday. A secondary trough will dig across the central U.S. going into Tuesday as a ridge over the eastern Pacific weakens due to a series of shortwave troughs moving into the Pacific Northwest. The ridge remains situated along the West Coast through Friday as the aforementioned shortwave troughs transition southeastward across the Great Basin along the western extent of a persistent trough over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. Ultimately, this will lead to fairly quiet weather for much of the week. High clouds will spill over the ridge periodically and northerly winds will prevail. Gradient remains tight on Tuesday with the initial digging trough still in the vicinity and gusts of 20-25 mph are expected. The Colorado River Valley will see enhancement of the northerly winds and therefore slightly higher wind speeds with gusts of up to 30 to 35 mph possible near Lake Mohave and Lake Havasu. Winds remain breezy in this area Wednesday and Thursday with slightly lower wind speeds. Northerly flow will usher in a slightly cooler airmass bringing temps back down closer to near normal on Tuesday. Temps warm up for the remainder of the work week back to above normal values. Models are beginning to pick up on the next system moving in next weekend but model and run-to-run consistency is poor this far out. && .AVIATION...For McCarran...Rain chances should end by 12Z this morning, followed a few hours later by decreasing clouds, leading to VFR conditions from about 15Z onward. Expect light easterly winds during the day, switching back to light south southwest overnight. Northerly winds Monday could be just strong enough to cause runway configuration issues. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Skies had already cleared in Esmeralda and northern Inyo counties as of 10Z, and the clearing line will progress southeast through Mohave County by 20Z today. Light rain early this morning will be limited to Clark and Mohave counties, with associated low ceilings and terrain obscuration. Expect VFR conditions areawide Monday, with northerly winds gusting 20 to 30 knots in exposed and terrain favored areas such as the Colorado River Valley. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Varian SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Guillet AVIATION...Morgan For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter |