Weather Service Report


295 
FXUS65 KVEF 151025
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
325 AM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds will persist today and Tuesday, 
especially within the lower Colorado River Valley and adjacent 
eastern San Bernardino County. The first freeze of the season will 
occur in parts of the Owens Valley and southern Great Basin this 
morning. Gradually moderating temperatures are expected the rest of 
the week with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible over parts 
of Mohave County Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Monday night.

Gusty winds have been noted across portions of the area this morning 
with the strongest winds occurring along the Colorado River Valley 
along with eastern portions of San Bernardino County. These areas 
are all cover with the wind advisory which is in effect. There have 
also been some isolated wind gusts over 50 mph across Lincoln 
County, but these areas are rather remote and the more impactful 
areas has remained below 40 mph. Elected not to add them into the 
advisory. Over the next 12-24 hours the models are forecasting a 
closed low to develop over SW Arizona which then remains nearly 
stationary through mid week. Moisture that is currently situated 
over Mexico and Texas is forecast to get drawn up into the low and 
bring the potential of showers to portions of western Arizona and 
possibly far southeast San Bernardino County Tuesday and Wednesday. 
There is not a lot of instability associated with the low, but there 
could be just enough dynamics to help kick off a few showers. Any 
rain that does fall should remain fairly light with generally less 
than a tenth of an inch. Any wiggle with the low could spread 
precipitation further west, but have left much of southern Nevada 
out of the precipitation. Temperatures are expected to be about 10 
degrees below normal today and Tuesday as cooler air filters into 
the area from the north. 

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday.

The stubborn upper low that will be parked over the southwest US 
over the next week will...still be there come Wednesday. This upper 
low appears to tap into a band of moisture that is currently 
extending from south of the tip of Baja California to across Texas, 
which is bringing them the significant rainfall they are 
experiencing. This should produce some isolated to scattered shower 
potential for Mohave county Wednesday, possibly as far west as the 
Colorado River (depending on the exact location of the upper low). 

The key difference in the long range guidance tonight vs this time 
yesterday is subtle differences in the evolution of the closed low 
Thursday/Friday and into the weekend. A more progressive shortwave 
out of Canada will serve to cut off the low center from the overall 
flow pattern and trap it under a developing ridge axis over the 
western CONUS by the weekend. As the remnant low shifts westward 
towards southern California and eventually off-shore, it should 
again pull moisture northward and into the region Saturday night and 
Sunday. Went ahead and raised PoPs for this time frame in 
collaboration with neighbors. QPF values still do not look too 
substantial at this point per WPC guidance.

Temperature-wise, gradual warming through the week is expected, with 
highs in the Las Vegas Valley reaching the low 80s by the weekend. 
Looking at the CPC 8-14 day temperature outlook, a fairly strong 
signal for above average temperatures looks to be on the horizon as 
the next stout upper low approaches the Pacific Northwest early next 
week.   
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty north to northeast winds will 
persist through today with speeds generally between 12-22 kts. Some 
gusts up to 25 kts will be possible late morning and early 
afternoon. Mostly clear skies expected through the day.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Gusty north to northeast winds will persist through 
much of the day. Strongest winds will be along the Colorado River 
Valley. TAF sites KEED and KIFP will have the higher gusts, with 
around 40 knots possible. Skies will remain mostly clear, with the 
exception of some 10-12k foot clouds across portions of Mohave 
County this afternoon south and east of IGM. 
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Gorelow
LONG TERM...TB3

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu