Weather Service Report


699 
FXUS65 KVEF 212107
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
110 PM PST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing temperatures through the remainder of the
week with an extended period of record or near record high 
temperatures expected Wednesday through Sunday. Early next week a 
low pressure system will push across the Pacific Northwest leading 
locally breezy conditions and cooling temperatures. &&

.DISCUSSION...through Monday.

Warming trend already underway as a strong ridge of high pressure 
builds over the Southwest and remains in place for the coming days. 
500mb heights of 588dm+ are already progged to be overhead by this 
evening, with heights rising further Wednesday to 590+. That is much 
more comparable to mid-summer heights than late fall.  Despite the 
abnormally strong ridge, the low sun angle and lack of surface winds 
will greatly limit the heating potential of this powerful ridge, but 
we are nonetheless expecting record temperatures over the next few 
days.  Along with this ridge will come pesky inversions, especially 
in the mornings, which will result in hazy/smoggy skies for the urban 
areas that will linger much of the week. 

Currently anticipating tomorrow being the warmest day of the next 
several as the ridge axis amplifies roughly along the Colorado River 
and abundant sunshine aids in warming.  Without surface winds 
promoting mixing, I somewhat question the ability for Las Vegas to 
reach 80 degree temperature territory as 80F temperatures this late 
in the year can be counted on just a few fingers. However, given the 
strength of the ridge and consistency of MOS guidance, it's hard to 
argue with it. Outside of Vegas, should see temperatures in the mid 
80s down the Colorado River, and near 90 in the lower reaches of 
Death Valley. 

Increased clouds move in Thursday which should reduce afternoon 
temperatures a tad, though widespread record temperatures are still 
anticipated. Our region will remain under the influence of broad 
ridging through Saturday, with near record temperatures persisting. 

Only glimmer of hope for a change in the weather comes late this 
weekend as a trough moves across the Great Basin, dragging a cold 
front and some Sierra precipitation southward. Confidence is low on 
the details at this point, so just added slight chances of precip to 
the Sierra Sunday-Monday and cooling temperatures. 


&&

.CLIMATE...Temperatures during the latter half of this week will 
jump to record territory. Below is a table of some of the threatened 
high temperature records.

               TUE 11/21  WED 11/22  THU 11/23  FRI 11/24  SAT 11/25 
Las Vegas, NV  77 (1976)  77 (1976)  76 (1995)  81 (1949)  76 (1970)
Bishop, CA     78 (1950)  76 (1954)  78 (1959)  80 (1949)  78 (1954)
Barstow, CA    84 (1950)  80 (1981)  82 (1949)  85 (1949)  81 (1959)
Needles, CA    84 (1926)  83 (1950)  82 (1995)  84 (1949)  83 (1949)
Kingman, AZ    78 (2006)  77 (2002)  82 (1915)  84 (1921)  83 (1921)
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Light winds following diurnal 
patterns are expected over the next few days. Tonight, winds will 
stay below 7 knots, with a westerly component, Wednesday late 
morning and afternoon winds will be light and variable at 5 kts or 
less. Decreasing high clouds as a strong ridge of high pressure 
builds over the area. 

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...Strong ridge of high pressure building over the 
southern Great Basins and Mojave Desert will lead to decreasing high 
clouds through Wednesday. North breezes down the Colorado River 
Valley at KIFP and KEED will continue over the coming days, 
meanwhile away from the Colorado River Valley winds will be light 
and variable or follow typical diurnal patterns with speeds 8 kts or 
less.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Pierce

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu