Weather Service Report


012 
FXUS65 KVEF 291019
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
319 AM PDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through the 
weekend with continued dry weather. Lighter winds are expected 
across most areas Thursday and Friday before the next weather 
disturbance brings breezy, southerly winds for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday.

High pressure will build along the West Coast on Thursday and 
Friday allowing for continued dry weather, lighter winds, and 
little change in temperatures each afternoon. Max temps will 
remain slightly above normal for late June/early July. High 
pressure drifts eastward on Saturday as next shortwave trough 
approaches and passes across the Great Basin into Saturday night. 
Breezy, southerly winds and a few extra high clouds across the 
southern Great Basin will be the main effects for the local area 
with this feature. Wind speeds Saturday afternoon will be near 
10-15 mph gusting around 20 mph. 

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.

The forecast remains dry through the middle of next week, but 
there are indications of the monsoon pattern developing from 
Tuesday onward as an area of high pressure builds around the Four 
Corners region. There are model differences particularly between 
the GFS and ECMWF solutions which lower confidence in any details.
The latest GFS depicts the broad closed high centered over the 
Four Corners Tuesday and Wednesday then heading west toward the 
Great Basin as a strong 600 dam closed 500 mb circulation. This 
pattern would generally keep any moisture over southern Arizona 
but possibly pulling up through southeast California. The ECMWF 
closer to the Four Corners Tuesday through Thursday and even 
indicates an inverted trough lifting up over northwest Mexico and 
the Gulf of California at the same time. This could open the door 
to moisture from Mexico moving up into northwest Arizona and 
possibly southern Nevada late next week. Subtle changes often come
into play this time of year during the weak flow pattern so it is
difficult to have much confidence...especially this far out. We 
will keep watching and waiting. Meanwhile, temperatures will be 
near normal early in the week then trend upward if the GFS 
depiction ends up being closer to reality.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather is expected through this upcoming weekend. The Red 
Flag Warning continues for Mohave County into this evening. 
However, winds do look to be slightly lower than previously 
forecast with southwest winds expected to be between 15-20 mph 
with gusts to around 25 mph through this evening. Other areas will
see lighter winds on Thursday and Friday before picking up once 
again for the weekend as a shortwave trough moves through the 
region. Southerly winds around 15 mph gusting 20 mph are possible 
Saturday and Sunday. 

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Observed flows on unregulated creeks, specifically Independence 
Creek, Big Pine Creek and Rock Creek indicate flows continue to 
slowly decrease from their peak flows which occurred last week. 
However, creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern Sierra slopes 
of Inyo County as well as the Owens Valley will continue flowing 
high and fast into the weekend. Minor flooding could occur near 
creeks as well as a few low water crossings on some roadways. 
Remember, never drive through flooded roadways or around barricades. 
Also, pastureland or farmland adjacent to creeks, streams or rivers 
could experience areas of standing water.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...A light easterly wind component should 
become southeast around 10 knots in the afternoon followed by a 
switch to southwest in the evening and overnight under a clear
sky.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will be variable and generally less than 15 knots 
across the region under a clear sky today and tonight.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Guillet
LONG TERM/AVIATION....Adair

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Western Regional Climate Center, wrcc@dri.edu